WASHINGTON — May 13, 2026 : Classified U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran has retained approximately 70 percent of its operational missile arsenal despite extensive U.S.-led strikes launched on February 28, 2026, according to information cited by The New York Times on May 13.
The assessments state that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of 33 missile facilities located along the Strait of Hormuz, representing roughly 91 percent of the network. Intelligence findings also indicate that nearly 90 percent of Iran’s underground missile storage facilities and launch pads are again operational following the conflict.
The data suggests that U.S. planners significantly overestimated the level of damage inflicted on Iranian missile infrastructure during the campaign and underestimated Tehran’s ability to rapidly restore military facilities and underground launch systems.
Underground Missile Network Remained Operational
The destruction of Iran’s missile infrastructure had been one of the primary objectives of U.S. military operations during the conflict. Alongside strikes targeting senior political leadership and critical civilian infrastructure, U.S. forces sought to disable Iran’s ballistic and cruise missile capabilities, which Tehran relies upon as its principal strategic deterrent against the United States and allied regional powers.
According to intelligence assessments, the survival of much of Iran’s missile capability was linked to the resilience of its extensive underground military infrastructure. Over the past four decades, Iran expanded and modernized its missile program with significant North Korean technical assistance. Intelligence officials assessed that this cooperation extended beyond missile production to the construction of fortified underground tunnel complexes and multi-level missile bases.
Many of these facilities are reportedly connected through underground rail systems located hundreds of meters below ground, enabling Iranian forces to redeploy launchers and missile stockpiles while remaining protected from sustained aerial bombardment. U.S. assessments reportedly concluded that facilities constructed using North Korean tunneling and concealment methods proved particularly difficult to destroy.
Only three of the 33 missile facilities along the Strait of Hormuz remain fully inaccessible, according to the intelligence findings.
Missile Defense Systems Faced Growing Pressure
The continued functionality of Iran’s underground launch network placed increasing pressure on U.S. and allied missile defense systems throughout the conflict.
A late-March report by Israeli newspaper Haaretz stated that approximately 8 out of 10 Iranian missiles launched toward Israeli targets were successfully penetrating regional air defense systems as interceptor inventories declined and radar infrastructure sustained damage.
Footage recorded from forward operating positions during the conflict also showed repeated interception failures involving Patriot missile defense systems. Defense analysts subsequently assessed that destroying Iranian missiles before launch remained the most effective method for limiting strike operations.
Iran’s missile arsenal was estimated before the war at between 2,500 and more than 3,000 ballistic missiles, making it one of the largest missile inventories in the Middle East. During the conflict, Iranian forces also employed hypersonic glide vehicles in strikes against high-value targets in Israel.
Iranian Air Force F-4 fighter aircraft were additionally observed operating from the underground Oghab 44, also known as Eagle 44, airbase during the conflict.
U.S. Precision Munitions and Interceptor Stocks Declined
While much of Iran’s missile infrastructure remained operational, U.S. inventories of advanced precision-guided weapons and missile interceptors experienced substantial depletion during the campaign.
An April assessment published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies stated that sustained combat operations had significantly reduced stockpiles of Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), Patriot interceptors, THAAD interceptors, SM-3 and SM-6 missiles, and Tomahawk cruise missiles.
The report noted that stocks of the Precision Strike Missile — extensively used against Iranian missile facilities — were close to exhaustion by mid-April.
The U.S. Air Force’s inventory of GBU-57 bunker-penetrating bombs was also assessed as nearly depleted. The munition, designed specifically to strike deeply fortified underground facilities, had already been used against Iranian targets in June 2025 before the current conflict began. Each GBU-57 is estimated to cost more than $370 million and was never produced in large quantities.
Strategic Concerns Following the Conflict
Defense analysts and officials have expressed concern regarding the long-term strategic implications of the conflict, particularly the disparity between the depletion of U.S. precision munitions and the continued operational capability of Iran’s missile infrastructure.
Analysts noted that Iran’s missile arsenal was primarily developed to deter the United States, Israel, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, while the United States must maintain sufficient stockpiles to address potential future contingencies involving China, Russia, and North Korea.
The conflict concluded in early April 2026 following a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire agreement.
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