RIYADH / MOSCOW — April 22, 2026 : Saudi Arabia is expanding its search for alternative security partnerships with China, Pakistan, and Turkiye as confidence in the United States continues to decline, according to an assessment by Prof. Mohsin Raza Khan of O.P. Jindal Global University.
Speaking to Sputnik on April 22, 2026, Khan said Saudi strategic thinking is increasingly shaped by what regional policymakers view as inconsistent US policies, particularly those perceived to prioritize Israel over Gulf security concerns. He noted that decision-making in Saudi Arabia now reflects a broader effort to diversify security arrangements rather than rely on a single external guarantor.
Emerging security framework
Recent developments indicate that Riyadh is formalizing new defense relationships alongside its longstanding US ties. In September 2025, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement, committing both sides to mutual defense cooperation. Analysts have interpreted the agreement as a step toward reducing reliance on Western security frameworks.
By January 2026, discussions had advanced on the possible inclusion of Turkiye in the Saudi-Pakistani framework. Officials in Ankara confirmed ongoing talks, while Pakistani defense production authorities indicated that a draft trilateral arrangement already exists. Diplomatic sources describe these discussions as progressing steadily, although specific provisions—such as joint exercises, technology transfer, or command structures—have not been publicly disclosed.
Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkiye, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia also met in Islamabad in recent weeks to address regional stability, Middle East tensions, and pathways for advancing US-Iran dialogue, reflecting a broader pattern of coordination among these states.
Complementary defense capabilities
According to Khan’s analysis, a potential trilateral arrangement would combine complementary strengths. Pakistan’s air force, supported by Chinese-origin platforms and systems, provides capabilities in air defense, electronic warfare, and fighter operations. Turkiye contributes in areas such as unmanned aerial systems, naval platforms, and defense manufacturing. Saudi Arabia, for its part, offers financial capacity, geographic depth, and growing domestic defense-industrial ambitions.
China’s role in this framework remains indirect but significant. Beijing’s defense relationship with Pakistan—particularly in aviation, missile systems, and electronics—positions Islamabad as a channel through which Chinese-origin capabilities could support a broader regional security structure.
China’s expanding role
Saudi Arabia has simultaneously deepened defense and strategic ties with China. Historically centered on energy and trade, the relationship has expanded to include military and industrial cooperation. China previously supplied DF-3 intermediate-range ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia and is reported to be assisting with infrastructure linked to missile production and drone manufacturing.
Riyadh joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a dialogue partner in 2023, further integrating into China-led multilateral frameworks. Beijing’s approach—characterized by non-interference and the absence of political conditionality—has been cited by analysts as a factor in its growing appeal to Gulf states.
Drivers of policy recalibration
Saudi Arabia’s shift toward diversified partnerships is linked to a series of geopolitical developments over the past decade. Analysts point to perceived inconsistencies in US security commitments, including responses to regional crises and a strategic pivot toward East Asia, which has raised questions about long-term Gulf security.
Events such as the 2019 Abqaiq attacks and subsequent escalation in the Israel-Iran confrontation have reinforced Saudi assessments that external security guarantees are conditional and influenced by US domestic and foreign policy priorities. Maritime tensions and disruptions affecting key energy routes in early 2026 have further underscored these concerns.
Saudi officials have also maintained that normalization with Israel remains contingent on the establishment of a credible pathway toward a Palestinian state and an end to military operations in Gaza. This position has been linked to broader concerns about regional stability and has contributed to friction with US policy approaches.
Strategic autonomy and Vision 2030
The evolving defense posture aligns with Saudi Arabia’s long-term objective of strategic autonomy under its Vision 2030 program. A central component of this strategy is the localization of 50 percent of military expenditure by 2030, alongside expanded domestic production and technology transfer agreements.
Cooperation with Turkiye has already advanced in areas such as defense manufacturing and joint production discussions. Engagement with Pakistan provides operational depth, while links with China support industrial and technological development.
Despite this diversification, the United States remains Saudi Arabia’s primary defense partner in terms of advanced weapons systems, training, and intelligence sharing. Ongoing arms sales and joint exercises continue to underpin the bilateral relationship.
Regional implications
Observers note that Saudi Arabia’s approach reflects a broader regional trend. Other Gulf states have also accelerated efforts to diversify security partnerships following recent conflicts involving Iran and Israel. The emerging Saudi-Pakistan-Turkiye alignment, with indirect Chinese support, is viewed as one component of a wider shift toward multi-aligned security structures.
Analysts describe the strategy as “strategic hedging,” aimed at building redundancy in defense arrangements rather than replacing existing alliances. By expanding its network of partners, Saudi Arabia seeks greater flexibility in responding to evolving threats while strengthening its negotiating position in dealings with major powers.
Further details on the scope and timeline of any formal trilateral pact have not been released. However, current diplomatic and defense engagements indicate that Saudi Arabia is steadily advancing a multi-layered security framework designed to operate alongside, rather than in place of, its traditional partnerships.
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