Jerusalem : Israeli defense and intelligence officials are warning that Iran has sharply accelerated its ballistic missile production, restoring losses from last year’s conflict and placing the region under growing strategic strain. According to assessments presented to Israeli lawmakers and reported by local media, Iran is now producing between 300 and 500 ballistic missiles per month, a pace that could push its total arsenal beyond 10,000 missiles by 2028 if sustained.
The warning comes from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), which says Tehran has prioritized missile reconstitution following the 12-day Israel–Iran conflict in June 2025. During that confrontation, Israeli strikes targeted Iranian missile infrastructure, destroying between half and two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers and damaging multiple production facilities. Before the conflict, Iran was assessed to possess between 1,000 and 2,000 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) capable of reaching Israel, including systems such as the Shahab-3, Ghadr, Emad, and Sejjil.
Post-war intelligence estimates indicated Iran’s usable missile stockpile fell to roughly 1,000–1,500 missiles. By February 2026, however, Israeli assessments suggest the arsenal has already been rebuilt to approximately 2,000–3,000 missiles. If current manufacturing rates continue, Israeli intelligence forecasts place Iran’s inventory at around 6,000 missiles by the end of 2026, rising to about 8,800 by mid-2027 and exceeding 10,000 by 2028.
Israeli defense planners describe the expanding missile force as a more immediate operational challenge than Iran’s nuclear program. Officials argue that a large and diversified missile inventory could eventually test the limits of Israel’s layered air-defense network, including the Arrow missile defense systems. During the June 2025 conflict, Israeli defenses intercepted approximately 86 percent of Iranian missiles launched toward Israeli territory, according to military data.
To support the accelerated production effort, Iranian industry is assessed to be relying on foreign-sourced materials to bypass international sanctions. Intelligence reports cited by Israeli officials point to deliveries of sodium perchlorate — a key ingredient in solid rocket propellant — originating from China. Satellite imagery and intelligence analysis also indicate reconstruction activity at previously damaged sites, including facilities near Parchin and Shahroud, which are associated with solid-fuel missile development and mixing.
The scale and pace of Iran’s missile buildup are expected to feature prominently in upcoming discussions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump. Israeli officials maintain that restricting Iran’s ballistic missile capacity remains a central security objective, particularly if diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran fail to impose new limits on missile production and deployment.
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