CANBERRA, Australia — May 3, 2026 : Australia’s debate over how to manage a projected defence capability gap before the arrival of nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS partnership has intensified, after Shadow Defence Minister James Paterson proposed examining the acquisition of U.S.-built B-21 Raider stealth bombers as an interim solution.
Speaking at the National Press Club of Australia on April 28, Paterson clarified that the proposal is not formal Coalition policy but said it reflects broader concern about Australia’s strategic readiness in the late 2020s and early 2030s. He argued that the government should assess whether the Royal Australian Air Force is positioned to operate such aircraft or consider alternative long-range strike options.
Capability Gap and Strategic Concerns
Australia is preparing to receive Virginia-class submarines as part of AUKUS, but delivery timelines have raised concerns about a temporary shortfall in deterrence capability. Defence analysts and policymakers have repeatedly pointed to this transition period as a potential vulnerability.
Paterson said the government is best placed to determine whether the B-21 is suitable but stressed the importance of ensuring that Australia does not enter what he described as a period of elevated strategic risk without credible long-range strike capability. He added that if the B-21 is not viable, comparable systems should be actively evaluated.
Australia has not operated a dedicated bomber aircraft since retiring the General Dynamics F-111C fleet in 2010. A 2023 Defence Strategic Review advised against pursuing the B-21, citing cost considerations and broader strategic priorities, though discussion of the platform has continued among U.S. and Australian policy communities.
B-21 Raider Program and Capabilities
The B-21 Raider is being developed by Northrop Grumman for the United States Air Force as a next-generation stealth bomber designed to operate in highly contested environments.
The aircraft is described as a sixth-generation platform capable of penetrating advanced anti-access and area-denial (A2/AD) defence systems. It is designed to deliver both conventional and nuclear payloads over long distances with reduced reliance on aerial refuelling. Its open-systems architecture allows for ongoing upgrades to address evolving threats.
The United States plans to acquire approximately 100 aircraft to replace ageing B-2 Spirit and B-1 Lancer fleets. Unit costs are estimated at around $700 million to $1 billion depending on configuration and production scale.
The B-21 conducted its first flight in November 2023 at Palmdale, California, and multiple aircraft are now undergoing testing at Edwards Air Force Base. A second test aircraft flew in September 2025, and the program has entered low-rate initial production. U.S. officials have indicated that testing performance is exceeding expectations, with initial operational capability targeted for 2027 at Ellsworth Air Force Base.
AUKUS, Supply Chains, and Defence Spending
Paterson reiterated support for the AUKUS submarine program, describing it as central to Australia’s long-term maritime security despite implementation challenges, particularly within U.S. shipbuilding capacity. He rejected alternative submarine pathways and framed Australia’s primary security concern as economic coercion rather than territorial invasion.
He pointed to vulnerabilities in global maritime trade routes, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, as examples of how disruptions could affect Australia’s economy and security.
The Opposition has renewed calls to increase defence spending to at least 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Paterson argued that without higher funding levels, delivering AUKUS capabilities could require reductions in other areas of the defence force. He cited warnings from Angus Houston that insufficient funding could strain existing military services.
Alliance Considerations in the Indo-Pacific
Paterson also emphasized the continued importance of the United States as Australia’s principal strategic partner in maintaining stability across the Indo-Pacific. He said that no alternative coalition could match the role played by the U.S. in supporting Australia’s core national interests.
While acknowledging debate around U.S. domestic politics, including policies associated with Donald Trump, Paterson stated that reliance on the U.S. alliance remains essential to Australia’s defence posture.
Policy Context and Expert Input
Paterson noted that the B-21 has been discussed by analysts including Peter Jennings, Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge in a 2024 paper for the Institute of Public Affairs. He described the aircraft as a maturing system with a smaller crew requirement than submarines, significant payload capacity, and extended operational range.
His remarks formed part of a broader response to the government’s 2026 National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Program. While reaffirming his support for AUKUS, Paterson called for contingency planning and a reassessment of investment levels to address near-term capability risks.
The proposal adds to an ongoing policy discussion over how Australia should balance long-term submarine acquisition with immediate deterrence requirements during a period of evolving regional security dynamics.
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