World
JERUSALEM / WASHINGTON : Israeli officials have told United States counterparts that Israel believes it could withstand a worst-case retaliatory strike of roughly 700 Iranian ballistic missiles if such an attack followed actions that resulted in the collapse of Iran’s leadership, according to sources familiar with the discussions. While acknowledging that the damage and economic cost would be severe, Israeli officials reportedly described the scenario as “costly but acceptable” in pursuit of long-term strategic objectives. The assessment is said to be grounded in Israel’s experience during the June 2025 Israel–Iran fighting, when Israel’s multilayered air-defence network intercepted a large proportion of incoming threats. Israeli authorities and several independent assessments at the time cited interception rates in the 80–90% range for ballistic missiles, reinforcing confidence in the country’s defensive architecture. Origins Of The 700-Missile Estimate The figure of approximately 700 missiles has circulated in recent months in a combination of media reporting, defence think-tank analyses and open-source commentary linked to intelligence briefings Israel shared with the United States and other allies. According to those assessments, Israeli planners have worked with a range of Iranian strike scenarios involving several hundred to nearly 1,000 ballistic missiles launched in a coordinated salvo. Officials familiar with the exchanges say the mid-range estimate of around 700 missiles emerged as a commonly referenced planning assumption in bilateral and allied consultations. In those discussions, Israeli and U.S. officials reportedly examined whether absorbing such a strike — even with significant losses and disruption — would fundamentally prevent Israel from achieving its military or political aims. A Layered Missile-Defence Shield Israel’s confidence rests on a tiered missile-defence system designed to counter different threats at varying altitudes and ranges. At the top tier is the Arrow missile defense system, including Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 interceptors, built to destroy long-range ballistic missiles, including exo-atmospheric threats. The system is jointly developed by Israel Aerospace Industries and the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. The mid-layer, David’s Sling, is intended to counter medium- to long-range rockets and cruise missiles that fall outside the Iron Dome’s envelope. At the lower tier, Iron Dome protects population centers from short-range rockets and artillery. It has become the most visible component of Israel’s defences due to its frequent use in conflicts with Gaza-based groups and Hezbollah. During the June 2025 exchanges with Iran, Israeli officials said these systems worked in concert, supported by early-warning sensors and U.S. intelligence cooperation, to blunt the majority of incoming fire. Analysts caution, however, that interception success varies depending on missile type, salvo density, use of decoys and the geographic distribution of targets. High Confidence, High Cost Defence officials and analysts stress that “withstanding” a 700-missile barrage would not be without profound consequences. Interceptor availability remains a critical constraint. While Iron Dome’s Tamir interceptors are relatively inexpensive, interceptors for David’s Sling and Arrow are far costlier, and sustained barrages risk depleting stockpiles faster than they can be replenished. Since late 2024, Israel has accelerated interceptor production and procurement, anticipating prolonged high demand. Even with high interception rates, infrastructure damage and economic disruption would be unavoidable. Missiles that evade defences, as well as debris and near-miss blast effects, could strike power grids, transport hubs and industrial facilities. Analysts note that the 2025 fighting, despite strong defensive performance, still produced localized but significant damage. Israeli planners also emphasize the importance of U.S. cooperation, including shared early-warning data, sensor integration and, potentially, regional missile-defence assets. Offensive operations aimed at degrading launch capabilities before missiles are fired are seen as a key complement to defensive measures. Experts Urge Caution Independent analysts warn against treating the 700-missile figure as a firm guarantee of survivability. Estimates of Iran’s missile inventory and launch capacity vary widely, and a campaign combining ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones and loitering munitions could strain even advanced defences. Sustained exchanges, experts add, would erode interceptor stocks, complicate command-and-control and magnify humanitarian and political pressures — particularly if a collapse of Iran’s regime led to internal chaos or uncontrolled escalation involving regional proxies. Strategic And Diplomatic Stakes The notion that Israel could “accept” the consequences of a massive missile retaliation in exchange for the fall of Iran’s leadership carries significant diplomatic weight. United States officials, according to public reporting, continue to balance military feasibility assessments against concerns that such a scenario could destabilize the wider Middle East and draw in multiple state and non-state actors. While Washington remains closely engaged with Israel on contingency planning and air-defence cooperation, U.S. officials are also reported to be wary of actions that could trigger a broader regional war with unpredictable outcomes.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-20 13:39:07
World
WASHINGTON / PARIS : Transatlantic relations slid into open confrontation this week after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a sweeping 200 percent tariff on French wine and champagne, directly linking the punitive measure to France’s refusal to join his newly unveiled international body, the so-called “Board of Peace.” The threat, delivered during a volatile White House press briefing on Monday, marked one of the sharpest escalations in U.S.–European tensions since Trump returned to office, intertwining trade coercion, personal diplomacy, and an ambitious — and controversial — attempt to reshape the global security order. A Diplomatic Ultimatum to Paris The standoff centers on French President Emmanuel Macron, who has formally declined Washington’s invitation to participate in the Board of Peace, an initiative Trump is promoting as an alternative mechanism for resolving global conflicts. Trump reacted with unusually blunt rhetoric, dismissing Macron’s decision and questioning his political relevance ahead of France’s 2027 presidential transition. He warned that refusal would carry economic consequences, explicitly threatening to raise tariffs on French wine and champagne to levels that would effectively shut them out of the U.S. market. “France can make its own choice,” Trump said, before adding that a 200 percent tariff would “change the conversation very quickly.” He later published what he described as a private text exchange with Macron on his Truth Social platform, further personalizing the dispute. In the message, Macron reportedly invited Trump to a dinner in Paris while expressing concern over Washington’s recent unilateral foreign-policy moves, including renewed U.S. interest in acquiring Greenland. French officials moved swiftly to condemn the tariff threat. A senior source close to the Élysée Palace described it as an “unacceptable and ineffective attempt” to pressure French sovereignty, warning that Paris would respond through European Union trade mechanisms if the measures were enacted. Putin Welcomed as France Steps Away While publicly chastising France, Trump simultaneously confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been formally invited to join the Board of Peace. The confirmation underscored growing European unease that the initiative could realign U.S. diplomacy away from long-standing Western alliances. “He’s been invited,” Trump said, declining to elaborate on whether Moscow had accepted. The prospective inclusion of Russia — alongside leaders such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — has fueled concerns in Paris, Berlin, and Brussels that the body is designed around transactional politics rather than multilateral consensus. European diplomats privately warned that inviting Russia while pressuring a NATO ally risks legitimizing Moscow at a time when many Western governments remain committed to isolating the Kremlin diplomatically. What Is the “Board of Peace”? Formally announced on January 15, 2026, the Board of Peace is a U.S.-led intergovernmental organization chaired by President Trump himself. The initiative was first floated in late 2025 as part of a post-conflict framework for the governance and reconstruction of Gaza following the October 2025 ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Since then, the concept has expanded dramatically. According to U.S. officials, the Board now aims to function as a permanent global forum for conflict resolution, crisis management, and post-war rehabilitation — a role traditionally associated with the United Nations and its Security Council. Leaked draft documents have intensified criticism. They describe a tiered membership system in which standard participation lasts three years, while countries seeking permanent status must make a financial contribution reportedly starting at $1 billion. The chairman — Trump — would retain veto authority over all decisions, granting the White House decisive control over outcomes. The Board’s executive committee is expected to include several prominent Trump allies, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, senior advisor Jared Kushner, and former British prime minister Tony Blair, according to officials familiar with the planning. Economic Stakes for France The threatened tariffs carry profound economic implications. The United States is France’s largest export market for wine and spirits, with French producers recording more than $4 billion in U.S. sales last year. The sector is already absorbing the impact of a 15 percent tariff imposed in 2025 as part of earlier trade disputes. Industry analysts warn that a jump to 200 percent would be catastrophic, effectively pricing iconic products such as Champagne and Bordeaux out of American retail and restaurant markets. French winegrowers’ associations cautioned that thousands of jobs across rural regions could be at risk if the threat materializes. U.S. importers and distributors have also voiced concern, noting that such tariffs would disrupt supply chains, raise consumer prices, and invite retaliatory measures from the European Union. Davos Overshadowed by Washington–Paris Rift The confrontation comes as political and business leaders converge in Davos for the World Economic Forum, where the Board of Peace had been expected to hold its inaugural high-profile meetings. Instead, the gathering has been overshadowed by the deepening rift between Washington and Paris. As of Monday, January 19, 2026, French officials confirmed unequivocally that Macron does not intend to join Trump’s initiative, regardless of economic pressure. “France will not allow its foreign policy to be dictated by threats,” one official said. With tariff deadlines looming and diplomatic channels strained, the dispute now threatens to evolve from a war of words into a broader transatlantic crisis — one that could reshape trade, alliances, and the architecture of global governance in the months ahead.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-20 13:18:48
World
JERUSALEM / WASHINGTON : Israel has taken delivery of three additional fifth-generation F-35 stealth fighter jets from the United States, reinforcing the Israeli Air Force’s most advanced combat fleet at a time of heightened regional security challenges. The aircraft, variants of the F-35A Lightning II customized for Israeli requirements and designated F-35I “Adir,” landed at Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, home to the country’s F-35 squadrons. With the latest arrivals, Israel’s operational Adir fleet has grown to 46 aircraft, according to Israeli defense officials. The delivery marks another step in Israel’s long-term plan to field one of the largest and most capable F-35 fleets outside the United States. A Cornerstone of Israeli Air Dominance Israel became the first country in the world to operate the F-35 in combat after declaring the Adir operational in 2017. Since then, the stealth fighter has become central to Israeli air doctrine, designed to penetrate advanced air-defense systems, gather intelligence, and conduct precision strikes deep inside contested airspace. Unlike standard export versions, the F-35I features extensive Israeli customization. The aircraft integrates indigenous electronic warfare systems, secure communications suites, and mission software developed by Israel’s defense industry, allowing the air force to rapidly adapt the jet to evolving regional threats. Israeli officials have repeatedly described the Adir as a “strategic game-changer,” citing its stealth profile, sensor fusion, and ability to operate alongside legacy fighter aircraft and unmanned systems. The Deal Behind the Jets Israel has ordered a total of 75 F-35I aircraft under a series of agreements with the United States, executed through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) framework. The most recent major contract, approved in the mid-2020s, covers an additional 25 aircraft and is valued at approximately $3 billion. That agreement includes not only the aircraft themselves, but also engines, spare parts, pilot and ground-crew training, maintenance support, and the continued integration of Israeli-specific systems. As with previous F-35 purchases, the deal is largely financed through U.S. Foreign Military Financing (FMF), underscoring the depth of the U.S.–Israel defense partnership. The manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, produces the jets in the United States, with final deliveries coordinated through U.S. and Israeli defense authorities. Delivery Timeline and Future Growth Israel began receiving its first F-35s in 2016, with deliveries proceeding in small batches over several years. The latest three aircraft are part of that ongoing delivery flow. Under current planning, deliveries from the 25-aircraft expansion order are expected to begin toward the end of the decade, with aircraft arriving gradually over multiple years. Defense officials have indicated that deliveries will likely occur at a pace of several jets per year, allowing the Israeli Air Force to steadily build toward its goal of three fully equipped F-35 squadrons. Once all 75 aircraft are delivered, Israel will operate the largest F-35 fleet in the Middle East and one of the largest worldwide. Strategic Implications The expanding Adir fleet significantly enhances Israel’s ability to operate independently at long range, particularly against sophisticated air-defense networks. Analysts note that the aircraft’s stealth characteristics and intelligence-gathering capabilities are especially relevant given the spread of advanced radar and missile systems across the region. At the same time, Israel continues to invest in upgrading older fighter platforms and integrating the F-35 into a broader, networked force structure that includes intelligence assets, missile-defense systems, and cyber capabilities. For Israeli defense planners, the arrival of each new Adir represents not just an increase in aircraft numbers, but a deepening of a technological edge they view as essential to maintaining air superiority in an increasingly complex strategic environment. As further deliveries are scheduled in the years ahead, the F-35I “Adir” is set to remain the backbone of Israeli airpower well into the 2030s and beyond.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 17:55:39
World
AMMAN / WASHINGTON : The United States has launched one of its most concentrated airpower deployments to the Middle East in years, rapidly moving strike fighters, aerial refueling aircraft, and heavy transport planes into the region as tensions with Iran continue to intensify. Over a span of roughly 48 hours, U.S. Air Force movements have revealed a surge designed not only to project combat power but also to establish the logistical depth required for sustained operations. Defense and aviation tracking data show a coordinated flow of fighters and airlifters converging on Jordan, signaling a shift toward a more forward-leaning military posture. Strike Fighters Move East At the center of the buildup is the deployment of a full squadron of F-15E Strike Eagles, the U.S. Air Force’s primary deep-strike fighter. Twelve aircraft from the 48th Fighter Wing, based in the United Kingdom, arrived in the Middle East under the long-range deployment mission CORONET East 028. The F-15E, designed for penetrating defended airspace and delivering heavy precision weapons, is widely regarded as a platform reserved for high-end contingencies. Analysts say its presence sends a pointed message, underscoring U.S. readiness to conduct offensive operations if deterrence fails. The transcontinental flight was enabled by an extensive aerial refueling effort. At least six KC-135 Stratotanker sorties launched from RAF Mildenhall to form an aerial refueling bridge across Europe and the Mediterranean. One of the Strike Eagles diverted to Crete, likely because of a technical issue, while the remaining aircraft completed the mission and landed in Jordan. Jordan Emerges as a Forward Hub The destination of the deployment, Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, has increasingly become a cornerstone of U.S. regional strategy. Often described by defense officials as a “fortress” location, the base offers proximity to Syria and Iraq while remaining outside the immediate vulnerability of the Persian Gulf coastline. Positioning advanced fighters there allows the United States to threaten a broad range of targets, including Iranian-aligned militias operating across the Levant, while complicating adversary planning through dispersed basing. A Heavy Airlift Surge While the arrival of combat aircraft has drawn attention, an even larger logistical buildup has unfolded in parallel. At least a dozen C-17A Globemaster III strategic airlifters have moved into Jordan in the same timeframe, an unusually high volume that points to preparations beyond a short-term show of force. Flight paths indicate a global convergence. Multiple C-17s arrived directly from RAF Lakenheath and Ramstein Air Base, likely transporting personnel, maintenance equipment, and munitions. Others flew in from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a hub for pre-positioned heavy equipment and bomber support assets. Additional aircraft originated from Creech Air Force Base, the center of U.S. remotely piloted aircraft operations, hinting at an expansion of unmanned surveillance or strike activity. Such an airlift pattern is typically associated with the establishment of a sustained air campaign, rather than a symbolic deployment. Broader Regional Context The aviation surge comes amid heightened regional volatility. Iran has faced weeks of internal unrest, and U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that any attack on American forces or allies would trigger a decisive response. At the same time, U.S. naval power has been on the move, with the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group accelerating its transit toward the Middle East from the Indo-Pacific. Taken together, the movements in the air and at sea suggest a deliberate effort to reinforce deterrence while ensuring that, should diplomacy fail, the United States is positioned to act rapidly and at scale. “The choice of Jordan is strategic,” a regional security analyst said. “It places high-end U.S. airpower within immediate reach of Iranian proxy networks in Syria and Iraq, while reducing reliance on more exposed Gulf bases.” A Signal, Not Just a Warning Whether the buildup culminates in military action remains uncertain. What is clear is that the scale and speed of the deployment mark a notable escalation in U.S. posture. By pairing frontline strike aircraft with an expansive logistical backbone, Washington appears intent on demonstrating that its warnings are backed by the capability to sustain operations well beyond an initial strike. For now, the fighters and transports on Jordanian tarmacs stand as a visible reminder that the Middle East remains a central focus of U.S. military planning as tensions with Tehran continue to rise.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 17:46:04
World
JERUSALEM : Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered one of his most uncompromising speeches in months on Monday, drawing what he described as “clear red lines” on Gaza’s future, the fate of Hamas, and Israel’s posture toward Iran. Speaking before the full plenum of the Knesset, Netanyahu signaled that Israel is prepared to confront not only its enemies but also its allies if core security demands are not met. The address came as diplomatic efforts intensify around a U.S.-backed, phased framework for post-war Gaza governance and as regional tensions remain elevated across multiple fronts. Netanyahu used the moment to publicly assert Israel’s non-negotiable positions, framing them as matters of national survival rather than policy preference. Gaza Governance: A Firm Rejection of Foreign Troops At the center of the speech was Israel’s opposition to any foreign military presence in Gaza, particularly involving countries it considers sympathetic to Hamas. Netanyahu explicitly ruled out Turkish or Qatari troops, despite both nations’ roles as mediators in hostage negotiations. “Turkish or Qatari soldiers will not set foot in Gaza,” Netanyahu said, underscoring that Israel alone will determine the security architecture of the enclave. While leaving open the possibility of limited civilian or advisory roles for regional actors, Netanyahu stressed that security control would remain exclusively in Israeli hands. He acknowledged differences with Washington over the proposed structure of a post-war governing mechanism, but emphasized that those disagreements would not dilute Israel’s core demands. Israel, he said, would preserve its alliance with the United States while refusing to compromise on matters it views as existential. Phase Two: Disarmament or Renewed War Netanyahu framed the next stage of the conflict in stark, binary terms. Referring to what he called “Phase Two” of the campaign, he stated that the objective is the full disarmament of Hamas and the permanent demilitarization of Gaza. According to Netanyahu, Israeli forces currently control roughly half of the Gaza Strip, a position he described as providing strategic leverage. From that vantage point, he offered Hamas a clear choice: surrender its weapons through diplomatic arrangements or face renewed and intensified military action. “The goals are clear, and they will be achieved — either the easy way or the hard way,” he said, a formulation widely interpreted as a warning that large-scale combat operations could resume if negotiations fail. The statement reinforced Israel’s longstanding position that Hamas cannot play any role in Gaza’s future political or military structures, regardless of international pressure to seek interim compromises. A Stark Warning to Tehran Turning to Iran, Netanyahu issued one of his most severe public threats to date, warning that any direct Iranian attack on Israel would provoke a response of unprecedented magnitude. “If Iran attacks Israel, Israel will respond with a force it has never known,” he told lawmakers, adding that such a confrontation could fundamentally alter Iran’s future. “Iran will not return to what it once was.” The warning follows renewed concerns in Israel and allied capitals about Iranian military activity and nuclear capabilities, as well as continued friction between Iran and Israel across proxy theaters in the region. Hostages and Domestic Politics Netanyahu concluded his address by reaffirming that the return of remaining hostages remains a top national priority. He specifically mentioned Master Sgt. Ran Gvili, whose body is still believed to be held in Gaza, describing ongoing efforts to secure his return as sensitive and best handled away from public scrutiny. The speech immediately drew sharp reactions across Israel’s political spectrum. Opposition lawmakers accused Netanyahu of using hardline rhetoric to bolster his standing ahead of looming political battles, while coalition allies praised the address as a necessary assertion of sovereignty amid growing international pressure. As the Knesset session adjourned, Netanyahu’s message was unmistakable: Israel intends to shape the post-war order in Gaza on its own terms, confront Iran without hesitation, and pursue its military objectives regardless of diplomatic friction. Whether those red lines harden into policy or trigger new clashes — on the battlefield or with allies — now looms as one of the central questions facing the region.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 17:32:05
World
KYIV / BERLIN : Ukraine and Germany have suspended further procurement of the HX-2 loitering munition produced by the German defense startup Helsing, following a series of technical failures uncovered during frontline testing in Ukraine, according to reporting by Bloomberg and internal German government documents. The decision marks another setback for Western-supplied unmanned aerial systems (UAS) in the war against Russia and underscores the widening gap between advertised next-generation drone capabilities and the harsh realities of electronic warfare on the Ukrainian battlefield. Testing in Ukraine Exposes Critical Flaws According to an internal presentation prepared by the German Defence Ministry and dated November 2025, the HX-2 repeatedly failed to meet operational expectations during trials conducted by Ukraine’s 1st Unmanned Aerial Systems Center, part of the 14th regiment. Ukrainian operators reported persistent problems during launch sequences, with multiple units failing to take off reliably under combat conditions. Even when airborne, the system was found to lack several of the advertised AI-enabled targeting and autonomy features that had been central to Helsing’s marketing narrative. Perhaps most damaging, evaluators concluded that the HX-2 was significantly more vulnerable to Russian electronic warfare than anticipated. Jamming frequently disrupted navigation and guidance, sharply limiting the munition’s combat effectiveness in contested airspace, where electronic countermeasures are now routine. A Pattern of Underperformance The HX-2 is not the first Helsing system to encounter difficulties in Ukraine. Its predecessor, the HF-1 loitering munition, had already drawn sustained criticism from Ukrainian units for inconsistent performance and limited survivability. The HF-1 is a modified version of the AQ-100 Bayonet developed by Terminal Autonomy. According to the same Defence Ministry presentation, only about 2,000 of the 4,000 HF-1 units ordered under contract had been delivered. Of those, roughly 40 percent were reportedly sitting unused in Ukrainian inventories, described in internal assessments as operationally irrelevant under current battlefield conditions. In an effort to salvage the procurement program, Berlin and Kyiv agreed to convert the remaining HF-1 orders into HX-2 purchases. That decision is now under renewed scrutiny, as the HX-2 itself has failed to demonstrate a meaningful improvement. Western UAVs Struggle Against Battlefield Reality The difficulties facing Helsing’s systems reflect a broader challenge confronting Western drone manufacturers in Ukraine. Ukrainian military and intelligence sources have repeatedly argued that many imported loitering munitions are ill-suited for an environment saturated with jammers, spoofers, and rapid counter-UAS adaptation by Russian forces. Domestic Ukrainian drones, often cheaper and less technologically ambitious, have in many cases outperformed Western systems by prioritizing resilience, rapid iteration, and ease of repair over advanced but fragile software-dependent features. This assessment appears to be gaining traction among Ukrainian security agencies. The Security Service of Ukraine has recently confirmed that it halted operational use of the Altius family of loitering munitions supplied by Anduril, citing unreliable performance and repeated mission failures. Implications for European Defense Strategy For Germany, the HX-2 setback raises uncomfortable questions about its fast-growing defense technology sector and the credibility of Europe’s emerging drone industry. Helsing has been widely promoted as a flagship example of Europe’s push into AI-enabled warfare, attracting political attention and significant investment amid calls for greater strategic autonomy from U.S. defense suppliers. The suspension of orders does not necessarily spell the end of the HX-2 program, but officials familiar with the testing say future procurement will depend on substantial redesigns and verifiable proof that the system can survive sustained electronic attack. For Ukraine, the episode reinforces a lesson learned repeatedly since 2022: in a war defined by adaptation speed, resilience, and mass production, these factors often matter more than cutting-edge features that fail under fire. As Kyiv continues to refine its drone doctrine, the emphasis is increasingly shifting toward systems that can be built, modified, and replaced faster than the enemy can learn to defeat them. Whether Western manufacturers can adapt quickly enough to that reality may determine their future role on Europe’s most technologically demanding battlefield.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 17:17:04
India
BENGALURU : India’s long-running effort to indigenise its maritime aviation capability has entered a decisive phase, with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) preparing to begin flight trials of its indigenous Utility Helicopter-Marine (UH-M), a twin-engine platform designed specifically for ship-borne operations. The Indian Navy is planning to induct the helicopter in significant numbers by the end of the decade, positioning it as the principal replacement for the ageing Chetak fleet, which has remained in service for more than sixty years. Senior officials familiar with the programme say the UH-M prototype is now mechanically complete, marking the transition from design and ground integration to flight testing. The helicopter is being developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited to meet a long-standing naval requirement for a modern, compact, and survivable utility helicopter capable of sustained operations from frontline warships. Why the Navy Chose UH-M Over LUH Recent clarifications from Naval Headquarters have removed lingering ambiguity over the Navy’s helicopter roadmap. While the single-engine Light Utility Helicopter (LUH) is being inducted by the Army and the Air Force, the Navy has formally ruled it out for maritime roles, citing the inherent risks of single-engine flight over open seas and during deck operations. Instead, the Navy has committed to the UH-M, a navalised derivative of the ALH Dhruv. The UH-M retains the core airframe philosophy of the Dhruv but introduces extensive modifications to address corrosion, shipboard handling, safety redundancy, and space constraints on destroyers, frigates, and offshore patrol vessels. Trials Timeline and Induction Plan According to officials at HAL’s rotary-wing complex in Bengaluru, the UH-M’s maiden flight is expected within the current financial year, with early 2026 emerging as the most likely window. Following internal test flights, the programme will move into a demanding phase of User Evaluation Trials (UET), conducted jointly with the Indian Navy. These trials will include repeated deck landings in day and night conditions, compatibility checks with ship hangars, blade and tail-fold evaluations, and endurance testing in high-humidity maritime environments. If the trials proceed on schedule, limited-series production deliveries could begin around 2027, with full operational capability targeted by 2030. The Ministry of Defence has already issued a Request for Information (RFI) for 76 helicopters, comprising 51 units for the Navy and 25 for the Indian Coast Guard. The programme is estimated to be valued at over ₹5,000 crore, making it one of the most consequential indigenous rotary-wing projects currently underway. A Helicopter Built for the Sea Unlike land-based variants of the Dhruv, the UH-M has been engineered from the outset for the harsh realities of maritime operations. The helicopter falls into the ~5.7-ton class and is powered by two Shakti 1H1 turboshaft engines, co-developed with Safran, providing the redundancy essential for naval flying. Structural changes include extensive use of corrosion-resistant materials, marinised avionics, and reinforced landing gear optimised for deck manoeuvring. The adoption of wheeled landing gear, rather than skids, allows the helicopter to be moved safely within confined decks and hangars of warships. A segmented blade and tail-boom folding mechanism reduces the aircraft’s footprint to approximately 3.5 metres, enabling it to fit aboard vessels originally designed around much smaller helicopters. The UH-M is also equipped with a full glass cockpit, naval weather radar, deck-approach aids, and emergency flotation gear to enhance survivability in the event of a forced sea landing. Roles Across the Maritime Spectrum Operationally, the UH-M is intended to be a true multirole platform. Its primary missions will include Search and Rescue (SAR), Casualty Evacuation (CASEVAC), ship-to-ship logistics, and surveillance in low-intensity maritime operations. The helicopter will also be capable of underslung load carriage, supporting replenishment tasks and humanitarian assistance during disaster-relief operations along India’s vast coastline and island territories. Naval planners view the UH-M as a critical enabler for distributed maritime operations, allowing smaller surface combatants to project reach beyond the horizon without relying on imported platforms. Strategic Impact and the End of Imports The progress of the UH-M programme signals a broader strategic shift. For years, the Navy evaluated foreign utility helicopters, including European and American designs, to fill the gap left by the ageing Chetak fleet. However, policy emphasis on self-reliance under the “Make in India” framework has reshaped procurement priorities. If the UH-M meets performance and reliability benchmarks during trials, it is expected to close the door on large-scale imports in this category. By 2030, naval planners anticipate the helicopter will form the backbone of India’s ship-borne utility aviation, operating routinely from frontline warships and contributing to maritime security across the Indian Ocean Region. As flight trials approach, the UH-M now stands as one of the most closely watched defence aviation programmes in the country, carrying both operational importance for the Navy and symbolic weight for India’s ambition to build complex military platforms at home.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 17:09:40
World
SAN DIEGO / WASHINGTON : In a milestone that underscores how rapidly artificial intelligence is reshaping air combat, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. has confirmed that its MQ-20 Avenger unmanned aircraft successfully carried out a live, autonomous aerial intercept of a crewed aggressor aircraft during a January flight from California. The demonstration, completed with minimal human input, is being described by defense officials and industry observers as one of the clearest signs yet that Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) are moving from concept to operational reality. Autonomous Intercept Marks New Phase in Unmanned Air Combat According to the company, the flight took place on 18 January 2026 and was fully funded by General Atomics. During the mission, the MQ-20 Avenger relied on a U.S. government-provided reference autonomy stack to plan, execute and adapt its actions in real time while manoeuvring against a live, crewed aircraft acting as an adversary. Unlike earlier autonomy trials that were limited to simulations or scripted manoeuvres, this test involved dynamic decision-making, sensor-driven target tracking and compliance with operational airspace constraints. Company officials said the aircraft autonomously adjusted heading, speed and altitude, respected predefined keep-in and keep-out geofences, and managed the intercept profile with only supervisory oversight from a ground control team. The aggressor aircraft remained crewed throughout the engagement, highlighting the growing confidence in safely operating AI-enabled systems alongside human pilots. Avenger’s Evolution from Strike Drone to Autonomy Testbed The MQ-20 Avenger is a jet-powered unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) developed as a higher-speed, lower-observable evolution of the MQ-9 Reaper family. Measuring roughly 13 metres in length with a wingspan of about 20 metres, the aircraft is powered by a Pratt & Whitney PW545B turbofan engine, enabling cruise speeds approaching 740 kilometres per hour and routine operations above 15,000 metres. Designed with an internal weapons bay to reduce radar and infrared signatures, the Avenger can also carry sensors or stores on external hardpoints when low observability is less critical. With endurance exceeding 20 hours and payload capacity well over a tonne, it sits firmly in the U.S. military’s Group 5 category of large, long-endurance unmanned aircraft. Although produced only in limited numbers, the type has logged thousands of flight hours since its first flight in 2009. In recent years, GA-ASI has increasingly used the Avenger as a flying laboratory for mission autonomy. As the United States Air Force accelerates its push toward Collaborative Combat Aircraft under its Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) vision, the MQ-20 has emerged as a surrogate platform for testing open-architecture autonomy, sensor fusion, and manned-unmanned teaming concepts. Building on Earlier Autonomy Demonstrations The January 2026 intercept builds on a series of increasingly complex trials conducted over the past two years. In early 2025, the Avenger flew in the Orange Flag 25-1 exercise using a government autonomy stack before transitioning control in flight to Shield AI’s Hivemind autonomy software. Later that year, GA-ASI demonstrated mixed live-virtual operations in which a real MQ-20 and its digital twin coordinated combat air patrol patterns, executed autonomous formation manoeuvres, and maintained station keeping without continuous human direction. A separate company-led test in mid-2025 had already included simulated autonomous shoot-downs of live aircraft, but the January 2026 event marks the first publicly acknowledged instance of a live intercept profile being flown end-to-end using the same class of government reference software. Defense analysts note that this continuity suggests the autonomy stack is maturing into a repeatable, certifiable capability, rather than a one-off experiment. Tactical Implications for Future Air Campaigns From an operational perspective, the intercept highlights several advantages that mission-autonomous UCAVs could offer in high-end conflicts. By relying on passive sensors such as infrared search and track (IRST), the Avenger can detect and close with airborne targets without emitting radar energy, reducing its electronic signature and complicating enemy countermeasures. Autonomous compliance with airspace control measures demonstrates that such aircraft can operate aggressively while still adhering to commander-imposed safety and deconfliction rules. Equally important is the reduction in cognitive burden on human operators. Autonomy that can handle routine manoeuvring, instrument navigation, and rapid response to new tasking allows a single ground crew to supervise multiple aircraft simultaneously. In combat, this could enable persistent patrols, faster intercept timelines, and the massing of uncrewed, potentially attritable shooters, while reserving crewed fighters for missions that demand human judgment. Strategic and Political Context The test further strengthens the MQ-20 Avenger’s role as a stepping-stone toward operational CCA fleets. By basing its work on open, government-defined reference architectures and demonstrating interoperability with third-party autonomy software, GA-ASI is aligning closely with U.S. Air Force objectives of avoiding vendor lock-in and fostering industrial competition. For Washington and allied air forces, this approach promises faster capability insertion and easier coalition interoperability. At the same time, the emphasis on simulated weapons effects and human oversight reflects an awareness that political, legal and ethical debates over lethal autonomy are intensifying. Defense officials continue to stress that humans will remain responsible for authorizing the use of force, even as AI systems take on greater roles in sensing, manoeuvre and decision support. Software as the New Centre of Gravity As air forces prepare for potential conflicts against technologically sophisticated adversaries, the January 2026 intercept flight stands out as a marker of how quickly mission autonomy is advancing from theory to practice. The MQ-20 Avenger’s performance suggests that future breakthroughs in air combat may hinge less on airframe performance and more on the quality, adaptability and trustworthiness of software. By pairing a survivable, long-endurance unmanned platform with modular autonomy stacks and advanced sensors, General Atomics and its partners are laying the groundwork for human-machine air combat teams that could redefine how air superiority is achieved in the decades ahead.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 16:07:04
World
BEIRUT : The collapse of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as an independent military power appears imminent after a sweeping government offensive and a far-reaching agreement that will see the Kurdish-led force absorbed into Syria’s national institutions, effectively ending a decade-long experiment in Kurdish self-rule in the country’s northeast. Once the most effective ground force against the Islamic State group, the SDF has been pushed back to a shrinking pocket in Hassakeh after Syrian government troops captured large swaths of territory following days of deadly clashes. The rapid advance marks one of the most significant military and political turning points since the fall of former President Bashar Assad in December 2024. From U.S.-Backed Ally to Strategic Defeat Formed in 2015 with U.S. backing, the SDF united Kurdish, Arab, Turkmen and Christian militias to combat the rise of the Islamic State in Syria. At its height, the force controlled nearly a quarter of Syrian territory, including much of the oil-rich east and key population centers along the Turkish and Iraqi borders. Although ethnically diverse on paper, the alliance was dominated by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), a fact that fueled tensions with Arab factions and alarmed neighboring Turkey, which considers the YPG an extension of the PKK insurgency it has fought for decades. The SDF’s military success culminated in March 2019, when it captured the last Islamic State stronghold in eastern Syria. That victory, however, left the group governing vast territory, running detention camps and prisons, and navigating a fragile relationship with Damascus that would eventually unravel. Damascus Moves to Reassert Control Relations between Syria’s new leadership and the SDF remained strained after Assad’s ouster, even as interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa consolidated power in Damascus. A surprise thaw appeared in March, when SDF commander Mazloum Abdi visited the capital and signed a preliminary agreement to integrate the force into the national army by the end of 2025. But talks stalled over how that integration would occur. Abdi publicly favored merging the SDF as a cohesive unit, preserving its internal command structure. Damascus rejected that approach. In early January, Abdi returned to Damascus for further negotiations. State media reported that no tangible progress was made. Within days, fighting erupted in northern Aleppo, forcing the SDF to evacuate long-held neighborhoods. The clashes quickly escalated into a broader offensive. Government troops pushed eastward, seizing towns outside Aleppo before driving deeper into the heart of SDF-held territory. By Sunday, Syrian forces had taken control of much of Raqqa — the former de facto capital of the Islamic State — and the oil-rich province of Deir el-Zour along the Iraqi border. A Ceasefire That Redefines Power Late Sunday, Damascus announced a ceasefire, formally ending the latest round of fighting. Shortly afterward, state-run media broadcast images of al-Sharaa signing a new agreement. Abdi’s signature appeared on the document, though he was absent from the ceremony, with officials citing bad weather. Under the terms of the deal, SDF fighters will be absorbed into Syria’s army and police as individuals, not as an organized force — a provision widely seen as a decisive blow to Kurdish leverage. Senior SDF commanders will submit names to Damascus, with select figures expected to receive military or administrative posts. In a symbolic move aimed at easing Kurdish anger, al-Sharaa issued a decree recognizing Kurdish as an official language alongside Arabic and declaring the Kurdish New Year a national holiday. The ceasefire was announced two days later. The End of Rojava The agreement effectively dismantles the autonomous region known as Rojava, or Western Kurdistan, which had emerged during Syria’s civil war. Kurds made up roughly 10 percent of Syria’s pre-war population of 23 million, but their political influence far exceeded their demographic weight during the height of SDF control. With Raqqa and Deir el-Zour lost, the SDF has been stripped of key economic assets, including oil fields, wheat supplies, dams and border crossings. Analysts say the loss of revenue and territory left the group little choice but to accept harsher terms than those it had previously rejected. Turkey stands to gain the most from the outcome. Ankara has long demanded the dismantling of Kurdish armed structures along its southern border and now sees its primary objective achieved without direct military intervention. Islamic State Prisons: A Looming Test One of the most sensitive issues now confronting Damascus is control of detention facilities holding thousands of Islamic State suspects. The SDF has for years guarded prisons housing an estimated 9,000 IS fighters, as well as the sprawling al-Hol and Roj camps, home to tens of thousands of women and children linked to the group. On Monday, the SDF reported an attack on the Shaddadeh prison, saying its fighters repelled multiple assaults. Under the new 14-point ceasefire agreement, responsibility for prisons and camps will gradually transfer to the Syrian government, which will assume full legal and security control. No timeline has been announced. The deal commits Damascus to continuing the fight against Islamic State, noting Syria’s participation in the U.S.-led coalition. Security experts warn that any lapse in oversight could trigger prison breaks or renewed insurgent activity. A Shift in U.S. Posture Washington has described the agreement as an “inflection point,” language widely interpreted as signaling the end of direct U.S. backing for the SDF. Kurdish commanders had publicly urged American officials to intervene as negotiations faltered, but those appeals went unanswered. For many Kurds, the outcome confirms long-standing fears of abandonment. After serving as the West’s primary partner in the war against Islamic State, the SDF now faces dissolution, its fighters absorbed into a state that once denied Kurdish identity altogether. As al-Sharaa tightens his grip on the country — following deadly clashes that subdued Assad-era Alawite strongholds — Syria enters a new phase of postwar consolidation. Whether that stability holds, particularly with Islamic State detainees now under central control, may determine whether the conflict is truly ending or merely entering another, more volatile chapter.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 15:56:16
World
WASHINGTON : The United States Army has formally missed its deadline to deploy the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile, confirming that the nation’s first ground-based hypersonic weapon will not be fielded until early 2026, despite the assigned combat unit already being trained and operationally ready. The setback, acknowledged this week by the Army and first reported by Bloomberg, marks the third major delay for the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) program since its launch in 2018. The program has absorbed more than $12 billion in Pentagon funding and is central to Washington’s effort to counter advances by strategic rivals in hypersonic warfare. A Weapon Ready in Theory, Not in Practice According to the Army, the missile itself has not yet completed the final stages of integration, safety certification, and operational readiness testing required before it can be issued to soldiers. While launchers, command vehicles, and support equipment are already in place, the hypersonic glide vehicle remains short of fielding standards. “Fielding activities include the required integration, safety, and readiness steps to ensure soldiers receive a system that is reliable, sustainable, and effective in operational environments,” the Army said in a statement, adding that those steps are now expected to conclude in early 2026. The service emphasized that it is prioritizing system maturity and rigorous testing over speed, reflecting the extreme technical challenges involved in operating weapons that travel at more than five times the speed of sound while enduring intense heat and pressure. What Dark Eagle Is Designed to Do Dark Eagle is the Army’s component of a broader $10.4 billion U.S. hypersonic weapons effort. The system uses a boost-glide design: a rocket booster accelerates the weapon to hypersonic speed before releasing a maneuverable glide body capable of striking targets thousands of kilometers away with conventional explosives. The capability is intended to give the Army a prompt, long-range strike option against high-value targets, including air defenses and command centers, without relying on nuclear weapons. The missile is being developed by Lockheed Martin, while the Army oversees integration, testing, and deployment. A Pattern of Missed Deadlines The current delay follows earlier missed milestones in September 2023 and again in 2025, underscoring the difficulty of translating hypersonic concepts into reliable battlefield systems. According to the Government Accountability Office, the first Dark Eagle battery alone is expected to cost roughly $2.7 billion, including missiles, infrastructure, and support equipment. Despite those challenges, the Army moved ahead with organizational steps. On December 17, it announced the activation of the first Dark Eagle battery, describing it as a “significant advancement” in U.S. military capability. The announcement did not disclose that the missiles themselves were not yet ready for operational use. Strategic Pressure From Abroad The delay comes at a sensitive moment for U.S. defense planning. Both China and Russia have already deployed hypersonic weapons, and Russia has used such systems in combat during the war in Ukraine. Defense analysts warn that the continued absence of a U.S. ground-based hypersonic capability leaves a notable gap in deterrence. The situation also represents an early test for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has publicly called for faster weapons development and deployment. Hegseth visited a Dark Eagle launcher during a December 12 trip to Huntsville, a key hub for Army missile programs, and has emphasized the need to accelerate fielding timelines without sacrificing safety. Army officials maintain that the program remains on track for eventual success and argue that rushing a system of this complexity would pose unacceptable risks. If the revised schedule holds, Dark Eagle will finally enter service in early 2026, nearly a decade after development began. Until then, the United States will continue to rely on testing, prototypes, and allied capabilities as it works to close the hypersonic gap with its global competitors — a reminder that, in modern warfare, speed on the battlefield often depends on patience in the laboratory.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 15:31:23
World
BEIJING / WASHINGTON : China has issued a sharp diplomatic rebuke to the United States, accusing former President Donald Trump of exploiting exaggerated security narratives about Beijing to justify renewed American ambitions over Greenland, the vast Arctic island governed by Denmark and protected under the NATO security umbrella. In a statement released by China’s Foreign Ministry, officials urged Washington to “stop hyping the so-called China threat” in the Arctic, warning that claims of Chinese or Russian encroachment were being misused as a political pretext for advancing U.S. strategic control over Greenland. The remarks mark Beijing’s most direct response yet to Trump’s repeated assertions that the United States must acquire or dominate the island “one way or the other.” Trump Revives Greenland Rhetoric Trump has once again placed Greenland at the center of U.S. geopolitical discourse, arguing that the Arctic territory is essential for American national security. In recent remarks to supporters and media outlets, he claimed that Greenland is vulnerable to foreign influence and alleged that Chinese and Russian vessels are operating in or around its waters. Those claims have been firmly rejected by Danish authorities. Denmark’s Defence Command has stated that there is no evidence of Chinese or Russian naval concentrations near Greenland that would justify an emergency security response. Independent Arctic analysts have similarly described Trump’s statements as exaggerated, noting that while Russia maintains a significant Arctic military presence elsewhere, Greenland itself has not seen unusual foreign naval activity. Beijing Pushes Back China’s Foreign Ministry responded by stressing that Beijing respects Denmark’s sovereignty and Greenland’s autonomous status. Officials said China has no military presence in Greenland and accused Washington of projecting its own strategic anxieties onto Beijing. “Using China as a convenient excuse does not change the fact that Greenland is not for sale and does not belong to the United States,” a ministry spokesperson said, adding that Arctic affairs should be governed through cooperation, not coercion. China has acknowledged economic interests in the Arctic region, including scientific research, new shipping routes opened by melting ice, and limited commercial investments. However, Beijing insists these activities are transparent and civilian in nature. Denmark and Greenland Push Back Danish leaders have repeatedly reaffirmed that Greenland’s future will be decided only by its own population, which enjoys broad self-rule. Greenlandic officials have also expressed frustration at being treated as a geopolitical bargaining chip by outside powers. Public opinion polls in Greenland have consistently shown strong opposition to any form of U.S. takeover, even as the island maintains close defense ties with Washington through existing NATO arrangements and the long-standing U.S. military presence at Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base). Arctic Stakes Rising The dispute underscores growing international competition in the Arctic, where climate change is opening new shipping lanes and access to untapped mineral resources, including rare earth elements. The United States, Russia, and China have all identified the region as strategically important, but experts warn that overstating threats risks destabilizing a region that has largely remained cooperative. Analysts say Trump’s rhetoric reflects broader anxieties in Washington about losing influence in the Arctic, rather than evidence of an imminent Chinese challenge in Greenland. Beijing, for its part, appears eager to counter narratives that frame China as an Arctic aggressor. Diplomatic Fault Lines China’s warning to the United States adds a new layer of tension to already strained relations between the two powers. While no immediate policy shift has been announced by Washington, diplomats say the exchange highlights how symbolic issues — such as Greenland — can become flashpoints in great-power rivalry. For now, Denmark and Greenland remain firm: the Arctic island is neither abandoned nor available, and security concerns, they argue, should be addressed through alliances and dialogue — not territorial ambition.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 15:21:29
World
ANCHORAGE / WASHINGTON : The Pentagon has issued “prepare-to-deploy” orders to roughly 1,500 active-duty soldiers from the 11th Airborne Division, setting off a wave of debate inside U.S. defense circles and across allied capitals. Officially, the alert is tied to a potential domestic deployment to Minneapolis, where unrest followed the fatal shooting of local activist Renee Good during an encounter with federal immigration officers. Unofficially, analysts say the move coincides with a rapidly escalating geopolitical confrontation over Greenland, raising questions about whether the domestic rationale masks a broader strategic purpose. The Orders and the Stated Mission According to defense officials, the alert covers two infantry battalions based at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson and Fort Wainwright. The units were told to be ready for rapid movement to Minneapolis, where protests intensified after the shooting. Federal authorities say the troops could be used to support immigration enforcement and protect federal facilities if violence escalates. Administration officials have cited the possibility of invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807, a rarely used statute that allows the president to deploy active-duty forces on U.S. soil when state authorities are deemed unable to restore order. Why This Unit? The selection of the 11th Airborne Division has immediately drawn scrutiny. Reconstituted and reoriented in recent years, the division is widely regarded as the Army’s premier Arctic and cold-weather formation, optimized for sub-zero operations, austere airfields, glacier movement, and high-latitude logistics. Military planners note that for domestic crowd-control or security missions in the Midwest, National Guard units or conventional active-duty formations are typically preferred. “This is an Arctic hammer being readied for an urban nail,” said a retired logistics officer familiar with force-generation planning. “That mismatch is what’s raising eyebrows.” The Greenland Backdrop The alert comes as Washington’s relationship with Denmark and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is under strain over Greenland. In recent weeks, Donald Trump has again publicly discussed the idea of U.S. acquisition of Greenland, warning that the United States would secure its interests “one way or another” if Copenhagen refused to negotiate. Danish officials have characterized such statements as an existential challenge to NATO cohesion, while European diplomats say contingency planning has intensified around Greenland’s airfields, ports, and undersea-cable infrastructure. Denmark, with allied support, has reportedly increased readiness under a defensive posture aimed at deterring any unilateral move. The Deception Debate It is this overlap—Arctic troops on alert and Arctic tensions abroad—that has fueled speculation about a potential strategic deception. Analysts point to a classic military concept: using a plausible domestic emergency to mobilize specialized forces without immediately triggering international alarms. “The mechanics are straightforward,” said an analyst at Center for Strategic and International Studies. “A domestic mission provides legal cover to load aircraft, marshal equipment, and place units on short notice. The moment of truth is the flight plan.” Defense officials caution there is no public evidence of an imminent operation against Greenland, and the Pentagon has denied that the alert is connected to any overseas contingency. Special Operations and Allied Posture Adding to the unease are unconfirmed reports of increased Special Operations Forces activity linked to Arctic training and reconnaissance. Such units are typically tasked with pathfinder missions—securing airstrips, ports, or landing zones ahead of larger formations—though officials stress that routine exercises can produce similar signals. Across the Atlantic, allied governments say they are watching closely. A European defense official noted that any military move involving Greenland would immediately engage NATO’s collective defense mechanisms, a scenario described privately as “unthinkable but no longer theoretical.” For now, the 1,500 soldiers remain in Alaska, equipment packed and timelines compressed. Whether they ultimately deploy to Minneapolis, stand down, or pivot elsewhere will likely become clear only when aircraft begin to move. As one allied diplomat put it: “Minnesota is south. Greenland is east. In today’s world, the direction of a transport plane can carry strategic meaning.”
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 15:13:28
World
Jerusalem / Washington : Israel has quietly urged U.S. President Donald Trump to delay any immediate military strike against Iran, according to assessments circulating within Israeli and American security circles. Far from signaling hesitation or political division, Israeli officials say the recommendation reflects a hard-nosed intelligence judgment that the current moment is strategically unfavorable and could ultimately strengthen, rather than weaken, Tehran’s ruling system. An in-depth analysis released by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs sheds light on the reasoning behind Israel’s position. The report argues that while Iran faces deep economic distress, social anger, and recurring unrest, these pressures have not yet translated into the kind of internal fracture required to topple an entrenched authoritarian regime. Intelligence Over Impulse Israeli intelligence assessments emphasize that regime change in Iran does not hinge solely on popular dissatisfaction. Instead, it depends on the loyalty of the state’s coercive institutions—most critically the regular armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Despite waves of protests in recent years, including demonstrations that openly challenged the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic, these institutions have remained intact and obedient. According to Israeli analysts, the regime has demonstrated a consistent willingness to deploy overwhelming force to suppress dissent. Protest movements have receded not because grievances have been resolved, but because the security apparatus has proven both cohesive and ruthless. As long as soldiers and IRGC units continue to follow orders to confront civilians, the likelihood of near-term regime collapse remains low. History, Israeli officials argue, offers a clear lesson. Authoritarian governments rarely fall at the height of street protests. They fall when security forces splinter, refuse to fire, or shift allegiance. At present, there is no credible intelligence suggesting such a rupture is imminent inside Iran’s power structure. The Case for Waiting Advocates of an immediate strike warn that delay carries serious risks. Iran continues to advance its missile programs, deepen its regional footprint through proxy forces, and expand sensitive nuclear-related capabilities. From this perspective, striking sooner could degrade military infrastructure, reassert deterrence, and potentially expose vulnerabilities within the regime. Israeli intelligence, however, judges that these potential gains are outweighed by strategic downsides under current conditions. A military attack launched while the regime maintains firm internal control could hand Tehran a powerful national resistance narrative. External pressure, analysts warn, often allows authoritarian leaders to rally public sentiment, silence opposition, and tighten elite unity under the banner of national defense. Rather than triggering collapse, a strike now could marginalize opposition groups and legitimize harsher repression, reinforcing the very structures of power Israel and its allies seek to weaken. Timing and Regional Risk Another central concern is timing. While the most recent protest wave in Iran has been blunted, Israeli officials believe underlying social and economic tensions remain unresolved. These pressures are viewed as cyclical, not extinguished. Acting during a period of relative calm—when security forces are alert, coordinated, and prepared—would squander the chance to synchronize external pressure with internal instability at a later stage. There is also the risk of regional escalation. Iran retains extensive retaliatory capabilities through allied militias and proxy networks across the Middle East. An attack absent a realistic pathway to regime collapse could ignite a prolonged confrontation, destabilizing the region without delivering a decisive strategic outcome. Patience as Strategy For these reasons, Israel’s message to Washington has been one of restraint. Israeli officials believe a more favorable opportunity would emerge during a renewed phase of internal unrest—one marked by eroding legitimacy, overstretched security forces, and the first signs of dissent within the military hierarchy. Only under such circumstances, they argue, could external military pressure meaningfully alter Iran’s internal balance of power. The core conclusion of Israel’s intelligence community is stark: the Iranian regime will endure as long as the army and the IRGC remain willing and able to fire on their own population. Until that reality changes, patience is viewed not as weakness, but as strategic prudence aimed at avoiding a costly conflict that could entrench the very regime it seeks to undermine.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 14:58:05
World
BRUSSELS : The European Union has quietly assembled a sweeping €93 billion ($107 billion) package of tariffs and market restrictions targeting U.S. companies, even as it deliberately pauses retaliation in favor of last-minute diplomacy with U.S. President Donald Trump. Senior EU officials describe the move as a calibrated show of force: the countermeasures are finalized, legally vetted, and ready to deploy, but Brussels is choosing restraint to avert a wider rupture over trade, security, and Washington’s revived demands related to Greenland. A Retaliation Package on Standby According to officials familiar with the planning, the European Commission has completed a retaliation list that would strike politically sensitive U.S. exports, echoing earlier transatlantic trade confrontations. The €93 billion figure reflects a reactivation and expansion of tariffs that were previously frozen under a mid-2025 trade truce, now updated to reflect current trade volumes and strategic leverage points. The package is designed to be modular. Brussels could activate it in phases, escalating pressure on U.S. sectors with strong domestic political constituencies while minimizing immediate blowback to European consumers.“Everything is ready,” one EU diplomat said. “This is not improvisation. It is leverage.” The Trigger: Tariffs and Greenland The crisis intensified after President Trump threatened a universal 10 percent tariff on imports from several European states—including Germany, France, and Denmark—set to take effect on February 1, with a warning that duties could climb to 25 percent by June if European governments refuse to engage with U.S. demands over Greenland. Trump has publicly framed Greenland as strategically indispensable for U.S. missile-defense architecture and Arctic security, arguing that expanded American control would bolster early-warning systems and counter growing Russian and Chinese activity in the region. European leaders, however, see the linkage of trade penalties to territorial pressure as an unprecedented escalation within the alliance. Brussels Pulls Back For Now Despite the scale of the threat, EU leaders are deliberately stepping back from immediate retaliation. Officials say the decision reflects concern that an all-out trade war—combined with a dispute over sovereignty—could destabilize NATO at a moment of already heightened global insecurity. European Council President António Costa, working closely with French President Emmanuel Macron, has urged a shift toward a “security-first” dialogue with Washington. The message being relayed to the White House is blunt but conciliatory: suspend the tariffs, and Europe is prepared to talk seriously about Arctic security—without reopening questions of sovereignty. Behind closed doors, officials describe this as a “strategic pivot” rather than a concession.“If we retaliate immediately, we lock in confrontation,” said one senior source. “If we talk first, we test whether Washington wants a deal or a showdown.” Economic Pressure Beyond Tariffs While tariffs dominate the headlines, the EU’s options extend further. The bloc retains the ability to impose regulatory barriers, procurement exclusions, and financial restrictions on U.S. firms operating in Europe. These tools fall under the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument, a powerful legal mechanism created for situations where economic pressure is used to force political outcomes. The existence of these measures—unused but credible—is intended to reinforce Brussels’ negotiating position as talks begin. The Debt Dimension Complicating the standoff is Europe’s deep financial interconnection with the United States. European countries are among the largest foreign holders of U.S. government debt, underscoring the mutual costs of escalation. The United Kingdom holds roughly $888.5 billion in U.S. Treasuries, followed by Belgium ($481.0 billion), Canada ($472.2 billion), Luxembourg ($425.6 billion), France ($376.1 billion), Germany ($109.8 billion), and Denmark (about $12 billion). EU officials stress that debt holdings are not a weapon, but they illustrate how deeply entwined the transatlantic economic relationship remains—and how damaging a prolonged conflict could become. A Narrow Diplomatic Window With the February 1 tariff deadline approaching, European and U.S. negotiators face an exceptionally tight timeline. Brussels’ strategy hinges on convincing Washington that cooperation on Arctic security and defense coordination offers more strategic value than a trade war that would cost both sides tens of billions of euros. For now, the EU’s retaliation list remains sealed but ready. The message from Brussels is unmistakable: Europe has prepared for economic confrontation, but it is betting—at least for the moment—that diplomacy can still prevail.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 14:35:44
World
COPENHAGEN : What began as a joke on social media has snowballed into one of the most talked-about political satire campaigns in Europe this year. More than 200,000 Danish citizens have now signed a viral petition proposing that Denmark buy the U.S. state of California, a tongue-in-cheek response to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s past interest in acquiring Greenland. The campaign, widely shared under the slogan “Måke Califørnia Great Ægain,” frames itself as a mirror held up to international headlines that stunned Denmark in 2019, when Trump publicly floated the idea of purchasing Greenland from Copenhagen. While the proposal is explicitly satirical, its creators have leaned into the joke with meticulous detail, polished branding, and a mock seriousness that has resonated far beyond Denmark’s borders. A Petition Built on Nordic Humor The initiative emerged online in early January and quickly gained traction across Danish and international social media platforms. Styled as a grassroots civic effort, the petition invites Danes to imagine what they describe as a “historic real-estate opportunity” for the Nordic nation: the purchase of California from the United States. Organizers say the campaign is not meant as an insult to Americans or Californians, but as a satirical commentary on how casually sovereign territory was discussed in the Greenland debate. “If countries can be talked about like property listings,” the petition argues, “then surely Denmark is allowed to browse.” The tone is unmistakably playful, blending political critique with self-deprecating Scandinavian humor, a style that has helped the campaign go viral. What Denmark ‘Offers’ California Under the fictional proposal, Californians would be welcomed into the Kingdom of Denmark with a package of benefits that reads like a parody of Nordic governance. The petition promises “rule of law, universal health care, and fact-based politics” as immediate perks of Danish administration. To underscore the absurdity, the organizers also pledge a lifetime supply of Danish pastries for all 39 million residents of the state. The petition’s website jokingly notes that while Denmark cannot solve every problem, “we are very confident about pastries.” The offer, though clearly unserious, taps into global stereotypes about Scandinavian welfare systems and political culture, contrasting them with the polarized debates that often surround California in U.S. national politics. Reimagining the Golden State The satirical plan goes further, outlining a full cultural “Denmarkification” of the West Coast. Los Angeles would be rechristened “Løs Ångeles,” while Danish-style cycling infrastructure would spread across cities more famous for traffic jams than bicycles. Even California’s most iconic institutions are not spared. Disneyland would be rebranded as “Hans Christian Andersenland,” a nod to Denmark’s most famous storyteller, Hans Christian Andersen. The petition cheerfully asks readers to imagine fairy tales replacing cartoon mascots, and even suggests that Viking helmets might become standard park attire. Negotiators, Crowdfunding, and a Trillion-Dollar Joke Acknowledging the hypothetical complexity of such a deal, the campaign claims it would dispatch Denmark’s “best negotiators” to Washington. The suggested delegation includes executives from LEGO and actors from Borgen, Denmark’s acclaimed political television series. Financing the purchase would come through crowdfunding, with a stated target of $1 trillion. The figure, organizers admit, is a rough estimate, accompanied by a disclaimer that Denmark is willing to “give or take a few billion.” The exaggerated sum is part of the joke, underscoring the gulf between real geopolitics and internet satire. Roots in a Real Diplomatic Dispute Behind the humor lies genuine diplomatic history. Trump’s comments about buying Greenland were met with sharp resistance in Denmark, where Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen famously dismissed the idea as “absurd,” stressing that Greenland is not for sale and that its future belongs to its people. Those remarks were widely supported across Denmark and Greenland, but they also sparked disbelief that territorial sovereignty could be discussed so casually by a major world leader. The California petition positions itself as a response to that disbelief, using satire to highlight what many Danes saw as a troubling precedent. The petition even suggests that the fictional deal might appeal to Trump himself, citing his repeated criticisms of California’s governance and politics. If the former president is no fan of the state, the argument goes, perhaps he would be happy to let Denmark take it off America’s hands. A Joke With a Message A disclaimer at the bottom of the petition makes its intent clear: the proposal is “100 percent real — in our dreams.” Yet its popularity suggests the campaign has struck a nerve, not just in Denmark but internationally, as a creative protest against the commodification of nations and peoples. There has been no response from Washington, and none is expected. Still, for a brief moment, the idea of Denmark trading pastries and LEGOs for the world’s fifth-largest economy has captured global attention — a reminder that humor can sometimes say what diplomacy cannot.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 14:23:23
World
Europe : EuroTrophy, Europe’s central hub for the Trophy Active Protection System (APS), has signed a landmark €330 million agreement with KNDS Deutschland to equip the next generation of Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks destined for Lithuania, The Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and Croatia. The contract was formally announced on Monday in Frankfurt am Main, underscoring NATO’s accelerating push to harden its armored forces against modern battlefield threats along the alliance’s eastern front. Under the terms of the agreement, EuroTrophy will deliver complete Trophy APS units alongside a comprehensive package of spare parts, operator and maintainer training courses, simulator-supported instruction, and dedicated logistics equipment. The scope extends well beyond initial fielding, providing full through-life support designed to guarantee sustained operational readiness across all four national fleets over decades of service. Trophy APS Standardized Across Leopard 2A8 Configuration The contract cements Trophy APS as a standard, factory-integrated component of the Leopard 2A8 configuration, ensuring full interoperability and technical commonality among participating nations. Defense officials familiar with the program say this standardization will simplify multinational deployments, enable shared sustainment and training pipelines, and reduce long-term lifecycle costs at a time when NATO planners are prioritizing collective defense and rapid force integration. By embedding Trophy at the platform level rather than as a national add-on, KNDS Deutschland and EuroTrophy have aligned the Leopard 2A8 with NATO’s broader doctrine of interoperable heavy forces, allowing armored units from different countries to operate side by side with identical protection architectures. NATO’s Active Protection System of Choice With this deal, Trophy further consolidates its position as the de facto NATO Active Protection System of choice. Designed to detect, track, and intercept incoming anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), and other battlefield threats before impact, the system is widely regarded as one of the most mature and combat-proven APS solutions currently in service. Trophy has already been integrated on major Western main battle tanks, including the Leopard 2 family, the U.S. Abrams M1, and Israel’s Merkava IV, as well as on lighter and medium-weight platforms such as Boxer, Patria AMV, and the Namer armored personnel carrier. Its expanding footprint across NATO inventories reflects the growing recognition that passive armor alone is no longer sufficient against modern precision-guided munitions and top-attack weapons. Strategic Context: Reinforcing the Eastern Front The timing of the announcement is strategically significant. Lithuania, the Czech Republic, and Croatia are all modernizing their armored forces as part of wider NATO reinforcement efforts along the eastern flank, while The Netherlands is reconstituting heavy armor capabilities in close cooperation with German-led formations. Military analysts note that the adoption of a common active protection system enhances not only survivability but also strategic signaling, demonstrating NATO’s intent to deploy survivable, networked armored units in high-threat environments. By combining advanced sensors, real-time threat processing, and hard-kill countermeasures, Trophy APS is specifically tailored for dense, contested battlespaces where tanks face simultaneous threats from multiple directions. EuroTrophy’s Role in Europe’s Defense Ecosystem Based in Germany, EuroTrophy operates as the European integration, support, and sustainment center for the Trophy system, originally developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. The company provides a European-made, NATO-fielded solution, combining local industrial participation with combat-proven technology. Beyond hardware delivery, EuroTrophy offers vehicle integration engineering, maintenance and upgrade services, and full lifecycle support tailored to European armed forces. Industry sources say this approach was a decisive factor in the Leopard 2A8 selection, allowing customer nations to retain sovereign support capabilities while benefiting from a system with extensive operational experience. Production and integration activities are expected to align with Leopard 2A8 delivery schedules for the four customer nations, with phased rollouts beginning later this decade. As NATO continues to adapt to rapidly evolving battlefield threats, the EuroTrophy–KNDS agreement marks a significant step toward a more resilient, interoperable, and survivable European armored force. For NATO’s heavy brigades, the message is clear: active protection is no longer optional, but a core requirement for survival on the modern battlefield.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 14:00:45
Space & Technology
HELSINKI : In a breakthrough that redefines how electricity can be delivered, scientists in Finland have successfully transmitted electric power through open air without using physical wires, demonstrating a new generation of contactless energy technologies based on sound, light and radio waves. Researchers from University of Helsinki and University of Oulu revealed that controlled electric transmission is possible by shaping the air itself, rather than relying on traditional copper cables. The findings, disclosed in January 2026 through university research briefings, position Finland at the forefront of experimental wireless energy systems. Sound Waves That Act Like Invisible Wires At the heart of the research is a concept scientists describe as an “acoustic wire.” Using high-intensity ultrasonic sound waves, researchers were able to manipulate air density in precise patterns, creating invisible channels through which electrical sparks could travel in a controlled manner. Unlike conventional wireless charging, which relies on short-range electromagnetic fields, the acoustic method actively guides electricity along a defined path. The ultrasonic beams compress and rarefy the air, forming a temporary conduit that directs tiny electrical discharges safely through open space. Scientists emphasized that the electricity is not freely floating or uncontrolled. Instead, it follows a sound-defined route, behaving much like a wire that exists only for a fraction of a second. While the energy levels remain modest, the experiment demonstrates unprecedented control over electrical movement without physical contact. Laser Power and “Electricity by Light” Parallel to the acoustic work, Finnish researchers and private-sector partners are advancing “power-by-light” systems that use lasers to deliver electricity to remote receivers. In these setups, high-powered laser beams transmit energy across distance, where specialized photovoltaic cells convert the light back into electrical current. This method offers a critical advantage: complete galvanic isolation. Because there is no physical electrical connection, laser-based power delivery can be used safely in high-risk environments, including nuclear facilities, high-voltage substations and hazardous industrial zones. Although efficiency is currently lower than wired systems, researchers say the technology is already viable for niche applications requiring extreme safety and reliability. Harvesting Power From the Air Itself The third pillar of Finland’s research focuses on radio-frequency energy harvesting. Instead of transmitting new power, these systems collect microwatts of energy already present in the environment from radio, cellular and Wi-Fi signals. By combining ultra-efficient antennas and advanced power-management circuits, researchers have shown that ambient radio waves can power low-energy devices such as environmental sensors, industrial monitors and smart infrastructure components. The approach could significantly reduce dependence on disposable batteries, particularly across large Internet-of-Things networks. Scientists describe the concept as “Wi-Fi for power,” where electricity is gathered continuously rather than delivered in bursts. Not Science Fiction, but Precision Physics Researchers are careful to clarify that the experiments do not violate the laws of physics. The systems do not provide unlimited electricity at any distance, nor do they replace the power grid. Instead, the breakthrough lies in precision control. Ultrasonic waves guide electric fields, lasers convert light into usable current, and radio systems recycle existing energy. Together, they demonstrate that electricity can be shaped, directed and delivered through air in ways previously considered impractical outside the laboratory. A Step Toward Cable-Free Infrastructure While still experimental, the implications are far-reaching. Future applications could include plug-free electronics, self-powered industrial sensors, contactless connectors in robotics, and safer power delivery in extreme environments. By combining sound, light and radio technologies into a single research framework, Finland has emerged as one of the first countries to demonstrate multiple working methods of air-based electricity transmission at once. Scientists involved in the project say the work does not signal the end of wires, but it does mark the beginning of a more flexible, cable-free layer of electrical infrastructure — one where power moves safely through air, guided by physics rather than copper.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 13:35:07
India
NEW DELHI : A Russian technical team assessing the feasibility of manufacturing the fifth-generation Su-57 stealth fighter in India is expected to submit a detailed cost report to Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) later this month, potentially reviving a long-dormant plan for Indo-Russian collaboration on advanced combat aircraft, The Indian Express has learnt. According to defence sources familiar with the discussions, the report will present a comprehensive estimate of investments HAL would need to undertake if India and Russia decide to move forward with domestic production of the Russian fifth-generation jet. The assessment covers advanced stealth technologies, skilled manpower requirements, production tooling, testing infrastructure, and the creation of an indigenous supply chain capable of supporting sustained manufacture and lifecycle maintenance. Russian Assessment Finds HAL “Half Ready” The Russian team, which includes representatives from the Sukhoi Design Bureau and other defence entities, had already shared an initial technical assessment with HAL around two months ago. That report concluded that HAL already possesses nearly 50 per cent of the infrastructure required to manufacture a fifth-generation fighter aircraft in India. This readiness stems from more than two decades of licensed production of the Su-30MKI, following an inter-governmental agreement signed in December 2000. Under that programme, HAL established a nationwide production ecosystem that remains central to the Indian Air Force’s combat fleet. HAL’s Nashik division hosts the final assembly line for the Su-30MKI, while its Koraput facility undertakes licensed manufacture and overhaul of AL-31FP turbofan engines. Avionics and mission systems support is provided by HAL’s Strategic Electronics Factory in Kasaragod, Kerala. Defence planners believe much of this industrial base could be adapted for the Su-57 with targeted upgrades. Fifth-Generation Gap Looms for IAF The renewed focus on fifth-generation options comes amid growing concern within the Indian Air Force (IAF) over a capability gap expected to last eight to ten years. India’s indigenous fifth-generation programme, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), is not expected to enter service until the next decade. At a recent defence event, Air Marshal Ashutosh Dixit, Chief of Integrated Defence Staff (CISC), acknowledged the looming gap and said multiple options were under evaluation to maintain fighter squadron strength. “We are thinking right now how that gap can be filled. There are various options. We are still working that out,” he said, adding that fifth-generation capability remains under active deliberation. Su-57E vs F-35: A Strategic Choice If India opts for a limited stopgap induction of foreign fifth-generation fighters, the choice has narrowed to two aircraft: the Russian Su-57E and the American F-35 Lightning II. Both platforms were showcased at Aero India 2025 in Bengaluru, underscoring India’s strategic importance to global defence manufacturers. However, defence analysts suggest that strategic autonomy considerations could tilt New Delhi toward the Russian option. Analysts point to longstanding Indian concerns over end-use restrictions, software locks, and limits on weapons integration associated with U.S. platforms. By contrast, Russia has indicated a willingness to provide India with broader access to source codes, mission systems, and weapons integration on the Su-57, aligning with India’s emphasis on operational sovereignty. In October last year, Russian Ambassador Denis Alipov publicly stated that Moscow was prepared to support India’s AMCA programme through local production of the Su-57 and associated technologies. While there has been no official confirmation that the proposal was discussed during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India in December 2025, the submission of the cost report suggests the idea remains under serious consideration. Industry-Led Exercise, No Final Decision Yet Officials emphasise that the current exercise is being driven by HAL to assess its own capacity and investment exposure, rather than as a signal of imminent procurement. The government has not yet taken a policy decision on acquiring any foreign fifth-generation fighter, and any such move would require high-level political approval and inter-governmental negotiations. Still, with squadron numbers under pressure and the AMCA timeline stretching into the 2030s, the Su-57 manufacturing study marks a significant step in India’s search for a credible fifth-generation bridge — one that could also deepen its long-standing aerospace partnership with Russia while strengthening domestic defence manufacturing.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-19 13:08:39
World
TOKYO : Japan’s national auditor has disclosed that military equipment worth roughly 1.1 trillion yen (about $6.9 billion) purchased from the United States has remained undelivered for years, exposing structural weaknesses in one of Tokyo’s most important defense procurement channels and raising fresh concerns about operational readiness across the Japan Self-Defense Forces. In an audit report submitted to parliament in January 2026, the Board of Audit of Japan revealed that weapons systems, support equipment, and maintenance assets acquired under the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) framework had failed to arrive despite more than five years having passed since contracts were signed. The investigation was conducted at the formal request of the House of Councillors and reviewed procurement cases dating back to fiscal year 2018. Long-Delayed Deliveries Across 118 Contracts According to the audit, 118 FMS procurement cases remained incomplete well beyond their planned delivery windows. In many instances, equipment that was expected within a few years had still not been shipped, forcing Japan’s ground, maritime, and air units to rely on aging systems or interim substitutes. The Board concluded that the majority of delays stemmed from bottlenecks at U.S. manufacturers, including production backlogs and shifting priorities tied to American defense requirements. Because FMS contracts are administered by the U.S. government, rather than directly between Japan and defense companies, Tokyo has limited visibility into manufacturing schedules and limited ability to press suppliers for faster delivery. Impact on Air Defense Capabilities One of the most serious cases identified in the report involved maintenance and support equipment for the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye, a key airborne early warning platform operated by the Japan Air Self-Defense Force. The audit found that tools and systems required to properly service the aircraft were not delivered within the original contract period and remained outstanding years later. The E-2D fleet plays a central role in monitoring Japan’s airspace and coordinating air defense operations. The lack of dedicated maintenance equipment, the report warned, risked reducing aircraft availability and increasing strain on personnel tasked with keeping the fleet operational. Contracts With Limited Enforcement Power The Board of Audit emphasized that delivery schedules listed in FMS agreements are estimates rather than legally binding commitments. Under the program’s rules, the U.S. government retains the authority to adjust timelines through administrative procedures, often without requiring formal approval from the purchasing country. Japan, having already made advance payments, has little leverage to compel adherence to original schedules. In several cases examined by auditors, delivery dates were repeatedly revised unilaterally by the U.S. side. Some contracts remained financially unsettled for years, with funds fully paid but equipment neither delivered nor formally canceled. Financial Exposure and Operational Risk The report highlighted that Japan had already paid the full contract value for most delayed items, as FMS requires upfront payment before production and delivery are completed. This created what the Board described as long-term financial exposure, tying up defense funds while offering no immediate operational benefit. Operational risks were also flagged. Units across the Self-Defense Forces were compelled to extend the service life of older platforms, increasing maintenance costs and reducing efficiency. Auditors warned that prolonged reliance on outdated systems could erode readiness at a time when Japan faces a rapidly deteriorating regional security environment. Structural Limits of the FMS System The audit devoted significant attention to structural issues inherent in the FMS framework. Because contracts are signed between the U.S. government and American defense companies, Japan is not a direct contractual party and cannot negotiate directly with manufacturers. This arrangement limits transparency over production delays, cost breakdowns, and the prioritization of orders when U.S. domestic or allied demands surge. While the Japanese Ministry of Defense repeatedly raised concerns with U.S. authorities, the Board found that these efforts produced only limited improvements in delivery timelines. Government Response and Recommendations The Ministry of Defense acknowledged the findings and stated that it would continue discussions with Washington to improve schedule management and information sharing. The Board of Audit urged the ministry to strengthen internal oversight of FMS contracts, enhance tracking of delayed items, and more carefully assess procurement risks before committing large sums of public funds. The audit also recommended that Japan reconsider whether FMS is always the most appropriate procurement route, particularly for support equipment and spare parts that directly affect day-to-day operational availability. Broader Implications for Japan’s Defense Strategy The findings come as Japan deepens its reliance on U.S.-made systems, including advanced aircraft, missile defenses, and command-and-control assets. The Board warned that continued delivery delays could have cumulative effects across multiple domains, undermining deterrence and readiness if not addressed. The FMS program remains a cornerstone of U.S. arms exports, promoted as a means to ensure interoperability and security among allies. However, the Japanese audit underscores how the system can leave purchasing nations exposed when production capacity is strained or when American priorities shift, turning estimated delivery schedules into years-long uncertainties.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-18 17:34:11
Space & Technology
MOSCOW / WASHINGTON : After more than a quarter-century circling the Earth as the most ambitious joint project in human spaceflight, the International Space Station (ISS) is entering its final, irreversible phase. Russian and American space officials are preparing for a decisive series of negotiations that will determine not whether the ISS will be destroyed, but precisely how and when the 450-ton orbital laboratory will be brought down safely before the end of the decade. The confirmation came this week from Roscosmos Director General Dmitry Bakanov, who said that while the station’s operational life has been formally extended, the emphasis has now shifted from utilization to controlled disposal. The talks, expected to intensify this year, mark the beginning of what both sides privately describe as the most complex engineering challenge the ISS program has ever faced. From Extension to Exit Strategy Under current agreements, NASA plans to operate the ISS until 2030, while Russia has committed only through 2028. That two-year discrepancy has emerged as the central fault line in the negotiations, because the station’s ability to maintain altitude depends heavily on propulsion systems housed in the Russian segment. Bakanov said Roscosmos has already completed a draft technical program for deorbiting the ISS, estimating that the full sequence—from preparatory maneuvers to final reentry—would take roughly two and a half years. That timeline implies that irreversible steps must begin well before 2030, even if astronauts continue living aboard the station during its final operational phase. Engineers on both sides warn that delaying decisions could increase the risk of an uncontrolled descent. As the station ages, its orbit naturally decays due to atmospheric drag, forcing regular reboosts to prevent an unplanned reentry. How the ISS Will Be Brought Down The planned end of the ISS is not a single dramatic plunge, but a carefully staged process. Once the final crew departs, a dedicated vehicle will attach to the station and gradually lower its orbit. The final burn will send the structure into a steep trajectory toward Point Nemo, a remote region of the South Pacific often called the world’s “spacecraft cemetery,” where surviving debris is expected to fall harmlessly into the ocean. NASA has already moved ahead with its own solution. In 2025, the agency awarded a contract worth nearly $1 billion to SpaceX to develop the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle (USDV). The spacecraft is based on an enlarged Dragon design, fitted with dozens of Draco engines and carrying far more propellant than any previous Dragon mission. According to NASA officials, the USDV is intended to function as a powerful space tug, capable of steering the ISS through its final maneuvers even if Russian propulsion is unavailable late in the process. Russian officials, however, have continued to argue that any deorbit plan must be fully coordinated, given the deeply integrated nature of the station. The Russian Module Question One of the most contentious issues is the future of Russia’s newer ISS modules, particularly Nauka, which was launched in 2021 after years of delays. Roscosmos has proposed detaching these modules to serve as the foundation of a future Russian Orbital Station (ROS) once the ISS partnership ends. Recent internal technical assessments, however, have cast doubt on that plan. Engineers have warned that metal fatigue and weaknesses in older docking nodes could make separation risky, raising the possibility of structural damage to both the departing modules and the remaining station. The dilemma is stark: if Russia withdraws in 2028, the ISS loses its primary propulsion and attitude-control capabilities. If it stays until 2030, the modules themselves may be too degraded to reuse. The issue underscores how tightly coupled the station’s international architecture has become after decades of continuous modification and expansion. A Symbolic End to a Unique Partnership Since its first modules were launched in 1998, the International Space Station has been continuously inhabited since 2000, hosting astronauts from more than a dozen countries and supporting tens of thousands of scientific experiments. It survived the end of the Space Shuttle era, multiple geopolitical crises, and the near-total collapse of U.S.–Russian cooperation on Earth. Now, both partners are looking elsewhere. NASA is backing a mix of private commercial space stations in low Earth orbit while focusing government efforts on the Moon through the Gateway program. Russia is pursuing ROS as a sovereign successor, designed for higher-inclination orbits and potential civil-military dual use. For Bakanov, the moment is as much about responsibility as legacy. “The station has served its purpose,” he said. “Our task now is to ensure its final chapter is written safely, so that it does not become a threat to the planet it observed for nearly three decades.” As negotiations move forward, the fate of humanity’s most expensive and enduring orbital outpost now depends not on discovery or diplomacy, but on precision, timing, and an orderly end.
Read More → Posted on 2026-01-18 17:26:30Search
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