WASHINGTON, June 24, 2026 — A new study by the RAND Corporation has found that the U.S. Navy could face significant difficulties repairing battle-damaged warships and returning them to combat during a major conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific region.
The analysis, based on an August 2025 tabletop wargame, examined how the Navy would sustain operations during a hypothetical war focused on the defense of Taiwan and the Philippines. Researchers concluded that maintenance facilities in the region would likely be overwhelmed and face shortages of spare parts, while command inefficiencies and uncertainty over allied shipyard support could further complicate repair efforts.
The study focused on Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, which form the backbone of the U.S. surface fleet, although researchers noted that many of the challenges identified would apply across all ship classes, particularly nuclear-powered vessels.
Wargame Scenarios
The exercise examined four operational scenarios involving U.S. destroyers.
One scenario involved a collision between a U.S. destroyer and a Chinese frigate in the Strait of Malacca. Another examined two destroyers damaged by gunfire and rocket attacks from Chinese ships and helicopters while escorting Philippine vessels in the South China Sea.
Researchers also studied situations in which several destroyers were struck by Chinese anti-ship missiles while defending the Philippines and a scenario where multiple destroyers sustained heavy damage while attempting to stop a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan.
In each case, participants determined that rapid in-theater repairs would be critical. Sending damaged ships back to ports in the continental United States would require weeks of transit and significantly reduce available combat power.
The report noted that the U.S. Navy has not experienced battle damage on the scale expected in a modern high-intensity conflict since World War II. In such a conflict, U.S. warships could face threats from anti-ship ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, torpedoes, and other advanced precision-guided systems.
Logistics and Coordination Problems
A major issue identified during the exercise was the difficulty of determining what resources were needed to repair damaged vessels and whether repairs could be completed locally.
The study found that command arrangements were often unclear, leading to situations where logistics organizations pursued repair actions that operational commanders had already rejected due to battlefield realities.
Researchers also observed that participants frequently assumed peacetime maintenance regulations and standards would apply during wartime operations, creating additional complications.
Spare parts availability emerged as another significant challenge. Even among ships of the same class, differences in equipment and modifications can make components incompatible, limiting opportunities to transfer parts between vessels.
Dependence on Allied Infrastructure
The report highlighted the importance of repair facilities in allied nations, particularly Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
While cooperation generally improved once allied capabilities were understood, U.S. personnel initially lacked detailed information about available facilities, access procedures, port locations, and specialized capabilities such as ordnance handling and major structural repairs.
Researchers also noted that allied support cannot be guaranteed as a conflict intensifies. Providing repair facilities for U.S. naval forces could expose host-nation infrastructure to Chinese military retaliation, creating political and security risks for partner nations.
China's Repair Advantage
The study contrasted U.S. logistical challenges with the advantages available to the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).
Operating close to its home bases, China would have easier access to repair facilities and industrial support. According to Bradley Martin, a RAND analyst and co-author of the report, China benefits from both geographic proximity and substantially greater industrial repair capacity.
Recommendations
To improve the Navy's ability to regenerate combat power during wartime, RAND recommended establishing clearer command-and-control structures for battle damage repair operations and securing formal agreements with Indo-Pacific allies on facility access and logistical support.
The report also called for increased investment in deployable repair teams, flyaway assessment units, and expeditionary mobile repair facilities capable of providing flexible maintenance support closer to combat zones.
According to RAND, addressing these issues will be essential for sustaining naval operations and restoring damaged warships to service during a future conflict in the Indo-Pacific.
The study, titled "Battle Damage Repair for Arleigh Burke-Class Destroyers: Tabletop Exercise Results," concludes that force regeneration in a contested maritime environment remains far more complex than current planning assumptions suggest and could pose a significant challenge to maintaining combat effectiveness during a prolonged conflict.
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