Why Pakistan Attacked Afghanistan from the Air, Why the U.S. Is Watching Closely

The recent Pakistani airstrikes on Kabul have sharply escalated tensions between Islamabad and the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan, marking one of the most serious cross-border confrontations since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. While both nations have long shared a complex and often uneasy relationship, this latest development signals a new level of military friction—one that could destabilize an already fragile region.

According to reports from Kabul, an explosion was heard in the capital late Thursday evening, though no casualties or structural damage were officially confirmed. Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid reassured residents that the situation was under control, stating that “it is all well and good” and that investigations were underway to determine the cause of the blast.

However, several diplomatic observers and regional analysts suggest that the explosion was linked to Pakistani airstrikes, reportedly targeting militants believed to be operating from within Afghan territory. Islamabad’s actions appear to be a direct response to a series of attacks carried out by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — a group that Islamabad claims finds safe haven inside Afghanistan under Taliban protection.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, addressing the National Assembly, made a clear statement of intent, saying that “collateral damage cannot be ruled out if Pakistani security forces come under attack,” adding that “enough is enough.” His remarks reflect growing frustration within Pakistan’s military and political circles over repeated cross-border assaults attributed to the TTP, which has intensified its operations over the past year.

A Cycle of Accusations

The situation is further complicated by mutual accusations from both sides. Islamabad accuses Kabul of harboring TTP militants, while Afghan officials claim that Pakistan supports certain ISIS factions and Baluch insurgents for its own strategic goals. The blurred lines between these armed groups make it difficult to separate reality from perception, and both nations often rely on intelligence assessments that reinforce their existing distrust.

Former U.S. envoy to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, reacted strongly to the strikes, calling them a “huge escalation” with “dangerous risks.” In a post on X, Khalilzad emphasized that military escalation was not the answer, urging dialogue between Kabul and Islamabad to address the issue of terrorist sanctuaries on both sides of the Durand Line, the disputed border separating the two countries.
He noted, “The Pakistanis have been recklessly backing ISIS operatives against Afghanistan and their own Baluch nationalist insurgency. The Afghans, in turn, have been permissive towards the TTP. Military escalation is unlikely to work and will increase death and destruction in both countries.”

Timing and Political Context

The timing of the airstrikes is notable. Just days before the attack, Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, arrived in New Delhi on a week-long visit — the first high-level Taliban delegation to India since 2021. Analysts have pointed out that the strikes might carry a political message, serving as strategic signaling by Islamabad amid shifting regional alignments and increased Indian diplomatic engagement with the Taliban administration.

Pakistan has long viewed Afghanistan through the lens of security and strategic depth, particularly regarding India’s influence. The renewed contact between New Delhi and Kabul may have added pressure on Islamabad to reassert its influence in the region, even as internal instability and economic challenges weigh heavily on Pakistan’s domestic situation.

Risks of Escalation

While neither country appears eager for full-scale confrontation, the risk of miscalculation is high. The border between the two countries remains porous and poorly demarcated, and even limited air or artillery strikes can easily spiral into wider conflict. Pakistan’s security establishment views the TTP as an existential threat, while the Taliban leadership — ideologically sympathetic but politically constrained — has struggled to control or expel the group’s fighters.

For now, the official tone from Kabul remains cautious, with no confirmation of casualties or retaliatory intentions. However, if civilian harm is later reported, public anger within Afghanistan could push the Taliban to respond militarily or politically, further worsening bilateral ties.