Why India Likely to Scrap ₹36,000 Crore Scorpene Deal with France, and Focus on ₹70,000 Crore German Submarine Project

India is reportedly preparing to shelve its plan to acquire three additional French Scorpene-class submarines worth ₹36,000 crore, opting instead to focus on a new ₹70,000 crore deal with Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) under Project 75-India (P-75I). According to The Times of India, the decision has not been officially finalized, but sources indicate that the proposal for more Scorpenes “is not being pursued now.”

The shift reflects India’s growing emphasis on acquiring more advanced submarines with greater endurance and technology transfer potential. The German partnership with Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) aims to produce six new-generation conventional submarines with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems, enhanced stealth, and land-attack capability.

Why the French Scorpene Deal May Be Dropped

Government sources cited three main reasons for reconsidering the French proposal. First, the German submarines are considered technologically superior, offering longer underwater endurance and improved stealth compared to the Scorpene design. Second, it would be challenging for MDL to manage two separate submarine construction lines simultaneously—one for the German vessels and another for the French. Third, the German deal offers deeper technology transfer and higher indigenisation, which aligns more closely with India’s “Make in India” defence manufacturing strategy.

The original follow-on Scorpene plan involved adding three boats to the six already built under Project 75, signed in 2005 with France’s Naval Group. These submarines—INS Kalvari, Khanderi, Karanj, Vela, Vagir, and Vagsheer—were built at MDL, with the last commissioned in early 2025. Each Scorpene submarine cost around ₹4,000–₹5,000 crore, and all six are scheduled to be upgraded with the DRDO-developed AIP system to extend underwater endurance.

Although cost negotiations for the additional three Scorpenes were completed last fiscal year, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) withheld final clearance, opting instead to prioritise the German offer under Project 75I.

The Indo-German Project 75I Deal

Under Project 75I, India plans to construct six advanced conventional submarines at MDL in collaboration with Germany’s TKMS. The contract—valued at approximately ₹70,000 crore—will include full design transfer, a high degree of localisation (targeting 60% indigenisation), and integration of advanced combat systems.

The submarines will be based on an improved version of the Type 214 design, incorporating cutting-edge AIP systems that enable the vessels to stay submerged for two to three weeks without surfacing. They will also carry advanced sonar, land-attack cruise missiles, and next-generation lithium-ion battery systems for longer endurance and faster charging.

The P-75I deal marks India’s largest “Make in India” defence contract in the naval domain. Official negotiations began in September 2025 after clearance from the Defence Acquisition Council and the Cabinet Committee on Security. The TKMS-MDL consortium is the only qualified bidder after Spain’s Navantia was reportedly ruled out for not meeting technical criteria.

Strategic Rationale for Choosing the German Option

The Indian Navy currently operates 16 submarines—six Scorpenes, four aging German HDW Type-209s, and six Russian Kilo-class boats. Two nuclear-powered submarines also serve in the fleet. Most of the conventional boats are approaching the end of their operational life, prompting urgent need for replacement and modernisation.

Choosing the German submarine offers several strategic and operational advantages:

• Enhanced stealth and survivability: The German Type 214 uses advanced noise-reduction coatings and hull design.

• Longer underwater endurance: The AIP system allows operations underwater for up to three weeks, compared to 3–4 days for conventional diesel-electric subs.

• Land-attack capability: Integration of cruise missiles allows strategic strikes from sea, extending the Navy’s offensive reach.

• Technology transfer and local production: A higher share of Indian-built components strengthens domestic defence manufacturing capability.

• Bridge to future indigenous design: The P-75I project is expected to lead directly to the future P-76 programme, under which submarines will be fully designed and built in India.

French Partnership Still Important

Despite the likely cancellation of the Scorpene follow-on order, India’s strategic and defence relationship with France remains strong. France is involved in other major Indian defence projects, including the planned acquisition of additional Rafale fighter jets and the co-development of a ₹61,000 crore jet engine with Safran for India’s fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).

Officials note that while the additional Scorpene plan may be on hold, it could still be revisited if industrial or strategic considerations change.

A Measured Shift

The decision to move from French to German submarines signals India’s focus on long-term capability and technological self-reliance over short-term fleet expansion. It also aligns with the Navy’s plan to modernise its underwater fleet amid rising Chinese activity in the Indian Ocean and Pakistan’s induction of eight Yuan-class submarines with AIP.

If the German deal proceeds on schedule, construction of the first P-75I submarine at MDL could begin by 2026, with delivery expected in the early 2030s.