Why Germany’s Arrow-3 Missile Shield Not Yet Able to Stop Russia’s Oreshnik: Report

Berlin / Moscow : Germany’s newly deployed Arrow-3 missile defense system is currently unable to intercept advanced Russian ballistic missiles such as the Oreshnik, according to a report by Die Welt, raising fresh questions about Europe’s near-term ability to counter emerging long-range missile threats from Russia.

The newspaper, citing NATO-linked sources, reports that the Arrow-3 battery recently placed on combat duty in Germany has not yet reached full operational readiness. As a result, it would not be capable, in its current configuration, of reliably intercepting an Oreshnik-type ballistic missile, despite the system’s design goal of exo-atmospheric interception.

A Strike Near NATO’s Borders

The assessment follows Russia’s recent ballistic missile strike on Ukraine’s Lviv region, an area that directly borders NATO member states. According to Die Welt, the incident marked what it described as the “first indirect confrontation” involving the Arrow-3 system since its activation in Germany, as the missile’s flight path and characteristics fell within the system’s intended tracking envelope.

Germany’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr, publicly describe Arrow-3 as capable of neutralizing ballistic missiles before they re-enter Earth’s atmosphere. On paper, this would include long-range systems such as Oreshnik, which Russian sources claim has a maximum range of up to 5,500 kilometers, theoretically placing most of Europe within reach from launch sites inside Russia.

Early Detection Without Interception

The first Arrow-3 battery has been deployed at an air base in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt. From this location, German operators can detect and track ballistic missiles at very early stages of flight, even before they approach NATO airspace.

This early-warning capability is reinforced through integration with NATO’s sensor network, including satellite-based missile warning systems and the Alliance’s Aegis missile defense architecture. According to Alliance procedures, data from these systems are shared in real time among member states, enabling rapid situational awareness across Europe.

In addition, Russia typically notifies NATO countries through diplomatic channels ahead of ballistic missile launches, particularly during tests or non-nuclear strikes, in order to avoid misinterpretation as a strategic nuclear attack. For this reason, German operators were likely aware of the Oreshnik launch well in advance and were able to monitor its trajectory from lift-off to impact.

NATO sources quoted by Die Welt stressed, however, that tracking a missile and intercepting it are fundamentally different challenges. While Arrow-3 can currently contribute valuable sensor data to the Alliance, its German-based configuration is not yet cleared for combat interception of such targets.

Limits of Existing Defenses

According to Alliance interlocutors, other systems theoretically available in Europe, such as the U.S.-made Patriot, would also face severe limitations against Oreshnik. While Patriot PAC-3 interceptors have successfully destroyed Russian Kinzhal missiles in Ukraine, experts note that Oreshnik represents a more demanding target.

Oreshnik warheads are believed to travel at the upper end of hypersonic speeds, approaching Mach 10 during key phases of flight. At these velocities, even highly advanced interceptors struggle with reaction time, tracking precision, and engagement geometry, particularly if the missile deploys maneuvering or separated warheads.

As a result, NATO officials reportedly assess that no currently deployed European system can reliably intercept individual Oreshnik warheads under combat conditions.

Arrow-3 Enters Service in Germany

The Arrow-3 system officially entered combat duty in Germany in early December 2025. The announcement followed the completion of intensive training for Bundeswehr personnel conducted by Israeli specialists in late November.

Germany purchased the system in 2023 under an intergovernmental agreement with Israel valued at approximately €3 billion. The acquisition forms a central pillar of Berlin’s effort to build a multi-layered missile defense shield in response to Russia’s growing arsenal of long-range and hypersonic weapons.

Arrow-3 is being integrated into Germany’s national air and missile defense framework and into the broader European Sky Shield Initiative, led by Berlin to coordinate air defense capabilities across participating European states.

The rollout has not been without difficulties. German security services have acknowledged several incidents involving unidentified drones attempting to locate or surveil Arrow-3 deployment sites, underscoring the system’s strategic importance and vulnerability during its early operational phase.

Inside the Arrow-3 System

Arrow-3 is Israel’s third-generation long-range missile defense system, designed specifically to counter medium- and intercontinental-range ballistic missiles, including those carrying nuclear warheads. Unlike earlier generations, Arrow-3 is optimized for interception outside the atmosphere, destroying incoming missiles through direct kinetic impact rather than explosive warheads.

The Arrow program dates back to the 1980s, when Israel and the United States launched a joint effort to counter Scud-type ballistic missiles. Arrow-1 and Arrow-2, deployed in the 1990s and 2000s, focused on atmospheric interception of medium-range threats and became a proven component of Israel’s layered missile defense network.

Arrow-3 represents a substantial redesign, developed primarily in the 2000s and early 2010s. Its main industrial partners are Israel Aerospace Industries and the U.S. defense firm Boeing, working in close coordination with the Israeli and U.S. governments.

The system combines long-range interceptors, powerful early-warning radars, a centralized command-and-control architecture, and integration with satellite-based detection assets. In Israeli service, Arrow-3 is considered a cornerstone of national defense against strategic missile threats.

A Capability Still Maturing

While Arrow-3’s technical specifications promise intercept ranges of up to roughly 2,400 kilometers and engagement altitudes exceeding 100 kilometers, military officials caution that such performance depends on full system maturity, extensive testing, and seamless integration with allied sensors.

For Germany, that process is still underway. Until additional batteries are deployed, software and command structures are fully validated, and operational doctrines are finalized, Arrow-3’s role will remain primarily one of early detection and strategic deterrence rather than assured interception.

The Die Welt report concludes that while Arrow-3 represents a major leap forward for European missile defense, the emergence of systems like Oreshnik highlights a widening gap between offensive missile technology and the defensive shields designed to stop them — a gap that NATO and its members are now racing to close.