Ukraine Highlights Patriot Missile Defence Weaknesses: Growing Doubts Over U.S.-Supplied Systems

The Ukrainian Air Force has openly questioned the performance of the American-made MIM-104 Patriot air defence system on the battlefield. In a recent statement, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Igor Ignat pointed out that the Patriot system has struggled to intercept Russia’s advanced Iskander-M ballistic missiles, which have proven capable of outsmarting the defence system in actual combat situations.

According to Ignat, the Iskander-M missile performs evasive manoeuvres during its final approach to its target, making it difficult for the Patriot to accurately track and intercept. On top of that, the Iskander carries decoys designed to confuse the Patriot’s guidance systems, further reducing the chances of a successful interception.

Repeated Losses of Patriot Systems in Ukraine

This concern isn't just theoretical. Over the past year, multiple Patriot batteries supplied by the U.S. and its NATO allies have reportedly been destroyed in Russian missile strikes. The first confirmed incident took place on February 23, 2024, when an Iskander-M missile successfully struck a Patriot system. In the following months, more such incidents occurred:

• March 10, 2024: Another Patriot system destroyed near Sergeevka.

• July 2024: Two more batteries eliminated in the Odessa region.

• August 11, 2024: Three Patriot missile batteries and a valuable AN/MPQ-65 radar were reportedly destroyed in coordinated Iskander-M strikes.

• Dnepropetrovsk Region: One of the latest attacks led to the loss of a radar station, control cabin, and missile launch vehicles belonging to a Patriot battery.

These repeated setbacks have left Ukrainian ground forces exposed and have led to serious questions about the reliability of one of the West’s most heavily promoted air defence systems.

A History of Disappointing Combat Performance

Interestingly, concerns about the Patriot system’s real-world effectiveness are not new. Its performance was questioned during its very first major use in combat — the 1991 Gulf War. Back then, the Patriot was deployed to intercept Iraqi Scud missiles. While early media and government reports praised its success, later investigations told a different story.

A U.S. Congressional subcommittee found that the Patriot's success rate was far lower than claimed. One report revealed that of the 158 Patriot missiles fired during the war, nearly half were aimed at false targets. MIT professor and missile technology expert Theodore Postol concluded at the time that the Patriot's intercept rate could have been below 10%, possibly even zero in some cases.

Failures in Iraq and Saudi Arabia

After the Gulf War, efforts were made to modernise the Patriot system. However, its disappointing performance continued in the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Then in 2017, during the conflict in Yemen, the system again failed to intercept a crude ballistic missile fired by Yemeni fighters towards Saudi Arabia, despite the Kingdom’s deployment of multiple upgraded Patriot batteries.

Missile experts later analysed the incident and confirmed that the warhead had made it through Saudi air defences unscathed. Jeffrey Lewis, one of the analysts involved, remarked that either governments were deliberately misleading the public about the system’s performance, or they were simply unaware of its failures — both of which, he noted, were cause for serious concern.

What It Means for Ukraine and Western Defences

Ukraine’s recent experience with the Patriot system highlights a long-standing issue: the system, despite decades of upgrades and billions in investment, has consistently struggled against modern, manoeuvrable ballistic missiles. The Iskander-M, with its high speed, unpredictable trajectory, and ability to release decoys, represents exactly the kind of advanced threat that Patriot systems have difficulty countering.

This has wider implications beyond Ukraine. Several NATO countries, as well as U.S. allies in Northeast Asia like Japan and South Korea, depend on Patriot systems as a key layer of their air and missile defences. If the Patriot can’t reliably intercept contemporary ballistic missiles, these countries may need to reconsider their defensive strategies.

Conclusion

The Ukrainian Air Force’s candid assessment of the Patriot system’s performance adds another chapter to a history of overestimated expectations and underwhelming battlefield results. As warfare evolves with faster, smarter, and more evasive missile technology, it raises serious questions about whether current Western air defence systems are up to the challenge — and whether new solutions are urgently needed to protect against modern threats.