US Allies Allege China is Developing Attack Drones for Russia

In a startling development, European officials have revealed that Chinese and Russian companies are collaborating to develop an attack drone modeled after Iran's Shahed, which has been extensively deployed in Ukraine. This venture marks a potential shift in Beijing's stance, inching closer to providing the kind of lethal aid that Western officials have vehemently warned against.

In 2023, Chinese and Russian companies initiated discussions about replicating Iran’s Shahed drone. This year, they began developing and testing their version in anticipation of shipping it to Russia. Despite these preparations, the Chinese drones have yet to make an appearance in Ukraine, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Shahed-like attack drone, if provided to Russia, would signify a substantial escalation of Beijing’s support for Moscow. This move comes despite President Xi Jinping's attempts to maintain a veneer of neutrality in the Ukraine conflict. Western officials, however, assert that China has already been supplying components and support to President Vladimir Putin’s forces. Xi's balancing act becomes increasingly precarious as the US and its allies continue to scrutinize China's actions.

While China has refrained from supplying weapons and artillery directly to Russia, US officials believe Beijing is weighing the possibility of sending fully assembled unmanned aerial vehicles. In the interim, China is reportedly supplying kits that can be converted into attack drones. This cautious approach reflects Beijing's awareness of the severe repercussions, such as economic sanctions, that direct military aid could provoke.

The international community remains divided on whether China's actions constitute lethal aid. Some nations argue that providing attack drones to Russia would cross a critical line. However, the US assessment remains that China has not yet crossed that threshold, although it acknowledges differing interpretations from other countries.

Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for China’s embassy in the US, reiterated China's official stance, denying any provision of weapons to the conflicting parties in Ukraine. He emphasized China's commitment to controlling exports of dual-use articles and criticized nations that he claims are fueling the conflict.

Russia’s defense and foreign ministries have remained silent on the matter, neither confirming nor denying the allegations.

Throughout the war in Ukraine, Russia has deployed thousands of Shahed drones, even establishing a factory to mass-produce this relatively inexpensive yet effective technology. Despite this, Russia continues to depend on countries like North Korea, Iran, and China for crucial supplies and components. The fear among Western officials is that China’s industrial capacity could enable it to produce a Shahed-like drone at a scale far surpassing Iran or Russia.

Although the exact model of the drone under development remains unspecified, Chinese defense websites and media reports suggest it could be the Sunflower 200, a kamikaze attack drone bearing a striking resemblance to the Iranian Shahed 136.

In April, Bloomberg News reported that China was supplying Russia with satellite imagery for military use, as well as microelectronics and machine tools essential for tank production and other military technologies. US Ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, highlighted China's covert support, stating that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is no longer a neutral player and is actively providing dual-use components that bolster Russia’s war efforts.

UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps further stirred the pot by suggesting that China was poised to provide lethal aid to Russia, a claim that was met with caution by US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. Sullivan maintained that, to date, there was no concrete evidence of China supplying weapons directly to Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking at the G-7 summit, disclosed that President Xi had assured him that China would not arm Russia. Despite these reassurances, the intricate web of support and collaboration between China and Russia continues to unfold, raising alarms and prompting a reevaluation of Beijing's role in the ongoing conflict.