Putin Approved Moscow-Made 'Oreshnik' Missile for Attack, Not an ICBM Fired on Ukraine

In the early hours of Thursday, the skies above Dnipro, Ukraine, were lit by the launch of a mysterious new missile. Initially thought to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), it was later identified as the Oreshnik—an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) named after the hazelnut tree in Russian. The strike caused extensive damage and left numerous civilians injured, adding another chapter to the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

A New Weapon Unveiled

The Oreshnik missile represents a notable shift in Russia’s military strategy. Based on the design of the RS-26 Rubezh, a missile initially developed as an ICBM, Oreshnik is a shorter-range weapon that has captured the attention of military analysts worldwide. Unlike its predecessor, which was designed for intercontinental deployment, the Oreshnik seems tailored for regional conflicts, capable of carrying various payloads, including conventional and potentially nuclear warheads.

U.S. officials have described the missile as “experimental,” indicating that its deployment in Dnipro may have been a test of its battlefield utility. The Pentagon confirmed that Russia had provided a brief notification about the launch, a move likely intended to prevent miscalculations with NATO forces. Despite being equipped with a conventional warhead in this instance, the missile’s adaptability has raised concerns about future escalations.

The Strategic Context

This missile launch comes at a volatile moment in the conflict. Just a day earlier, Ukraine had launched strikes deep into Russian territory using advanced U.S.-made ATACMS missiles. These strikes targeted military infrastructure, including a defense plant, escalating tensions further. Moscow’s decision to respond with the Oreshnik underscores its evolving strategy, blending conventional responses with displays of technological innovation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed the missile's use during a televised address, framing it as a response to Ukrainian attacks rather than NATO’s expanding missile defense systems in Eastern Europe. However, the timing has fueled speculation about its broader implications, particularly given NATO's ongoing efforts to bolster its defenses in Poland and elsewhere.

Technical Insights

The Oreshnik’s origins in the RS-26 Rubezh program highlight Russia’s ability to adapt existing technologies for new roles. The RS-26 was originally designed to evade U.S. missile defenses with its advanced maneuverability and speed. By reconfiguring this platform into an IRBM, Russia has created a weapon that fills the gap between short-range tactical missiles and long-range ICBMs.

Intermediate-range ballistic missiles like the Oreshnik typically have ranges between 1,000 and 5,500 kilometers. While the exact specifications of Oreshnik remain classified, experts suggest that its range and payload capabilities likely align with these parameters, allowing it to strike critical targets in Europe or Asia without crossing into the strategic domain of an ICBM.

The missile’s adaptability is a key concern for Western analysts. According to Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh, the Oreshnik can be reconfigured to carry nuclear payloads, making its introduction to the battlefield a potential game-changer.

Repercussions for NATO and Beyond

NATO officials are closely monitoring the situation. The introduction of the Oreshnik into the conflict could prompt the alliance to reassess its missile defense posture, particularly in Eastern Europe. With tensions already high over the deployment of a U.S. missile defense base in Poland, Russia’s latest missile launch sends a clear signal about its capabilities and willingness to use them.

Timothy Wright, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, warned that this development might accelerate NATO’s investment in advanced air defense systems. “Russia’s actions demonstrate their commitment to modernizing their missile arsenal, and NATO cannot afford to lag behind,” Wright stated.

A Growing Rift

The missile’s deployment also underscores the long-term consequences of the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. The treaty, which once served as a cornerstone of arms control between the U.S. and Russia, was dissolved amid mutual accusations of non-compliance. Putin has since pointed to the U.S.’s withdrawal as a justification for Russia’s renewed focus on intermediate-range missile development.

As the conflict continues, the Oreshnik serves as a stark reminder of the high stakes and the rapid pace of technological advancement in modern warfare. While the missile’s first known use has brought devastation to Dnipro, its broader implications could reshape the military landscape far beyond the borders of Ukraine.