Poland Closes Borders, Boosts Defenses as Russia and Belarus Begin Zapad-2025 Drills Near NATO Frontier

Poland has sharply escalated defensive measures amid mounting tensions that followed reported drone incursions from Russia and the launch of large-scale military exercises by Russia and Belarus near NATO’s eastern borders. The Zapad-2025 war games, combined with repeated airspace violations, have deepened fears of instability in Eastern Europe.

What’s Happening

• Zapad-2025 Exercises Begin
  On September 12, Russia and Belarus launched joint military drills officially called “Zapad-2025.” The maneuvers are taking place in both countries, including at training grounds in Belarus close to the Polish border. The stated goals are simulating attack repulsion and restoring territorial integrity for the Union State of Russia and Belarus.

• Drone Incursions over Poland
  Days before the drills, Poland reported that 19 Russian drones entered its airspace, some crossing from Belarus. Polish and NATO forces shot down several of them. Warsaw insists the incursions were deliberate and not accidental navigation errors.

• Border Closures & Airspace Restrictions
  In response, Poland closed its remaining border crossings with Belarus as of midnight before the start of Zapad-2025, including rail routes. The government has said the closure will remain until threats to national security subside. Warsaw has also banned drone flights and restricted small aviation along its eastern borders until December, limiting night flights and flights above 3 km altitude for non-commercial aircraft.

• Military Mobilization & NATO Allies’ Support
  Thousands of Polish troops have been deployed eastward, with forces placed on heightened alert. NATO allies have stepped in: Germany has reinforced air policing missions over Poland, while France announced the deployment of three Rafale fighter jets to strengthen Poland’s air defense. Other allies, including the UK, have expressed readiness to expand military support.

Reactions & Stakes

• Polish Leadership
  Prime Minister Donald Tusk has described the situation as “critical,” warning that Poland is closer to open conflict than at any point since World War II. Interior Minister Marcin Kierwinski stressed that Russia’s actions amount to ongoing aggression, citing both the exercises and the drone incursions.

• Russia & Belarus’ Position
  Moscow and Minsk insist the Zapad-2025 drills are defensive in nature and were planned long before the drone incidents. Russian officials deny that drones were targeting Poland, claiming they were aimed at sites inside Ukraine. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko dismissed Western concerns as “utter nonsense,” saying the exercises had even been moved away from NATO borders to ease tensions.

• International Response
  NATO has begun consultations under Article 4, triggered when a member feels its security is threatened. The European Union has condemned the drone violations. France and Germany have gone beyond statements, providing concrete support, while the United Nations Security Council is preparing to debate the incursions at Poland’s request.

Why Observers Are Alarmed

Analysts warn that the location of the Zapad-2025 drills raises concerns about a potential simulation of an attack on the Suwałki Gap, a narrow corridor linking Poland and Lithuania, often regarded as NATO’s most vulnerable point.

The drone incursions highlight another emerging threat: unmanned aerial systems crossing sovereign borders undetected or too late to intercept. Polish officials have long criticized the slow modernization of its counter-drone infrastructure, a weakness now being tested in real time.

The risk of escalation is significant. Any miscalculation — such as a drone strike on Polish territory or a misinterpreted maneuver during the drills — could draw NATO into a direct confrontation with Russia.

Poland’s leaders have made clear that they see this as more than a regional flare-up in Ukraine. For Warsaw, the Zapad-2025 drills and drone incursions represent a direct threat to its sovereignty and NATO’s eastern flank. How the next few days unfold will determine whether the crisis cools through diplomacy or accelerates toward confrontation.