NGAD in Limbo: The U.S. Air Force’s Struggle to Define the Future of Air Superiority

The Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, once seen as the cornerstone of future U.S. air superiority, is now facing uncertainty. Initially designed to replace the F-22 Raptor, NGAD was envisioned as more than just a fighter jet—it was supposed to be a networked system of manned and unmanned platforms, built to dominate contested airspace. However, the delayed contract award, rising costs, and strategic reassessments have cast doubt on whether NGAD will move forward as originally planned.

Why NGAD Was Conceived

The program was developed to counter the growing air power of near-peer adversaries like China. The F-22 Raptor, despite being one of the world’s most advanced fighter jets, has limitations in range and payload capacity, especially when operating over the vast distances of the Pacific theater. NGAD was meant to overcome these shortcomings with a highly survivable, next-generation aircraft, featuring:

• Stealth-enhanced airframe to operate in contested environments
• Next-generation adaptive engines for extended range and efficiency
• Advanced sensor fusion for superior situational awareness
• AI-powered battle management to assist pilots in complex combat
• Integration with drone wingmen (Collaborative Combat Aircraft - CCA)

This manned-unmanned teaming approach was expected to transform air combat, allowing NGAD to operate alongside autonomous drones, which could extend its reach, engage threats, and reduce risk to pilots.

The Cost Problem: Is NGAD Too Expensive to Sustain?

One of the biggest hurdles facing NGAD is its staggering cost. Estimates suggest that a single NGAD fighter could cost up to $300 million—far more than any fighter ever built, including the F-22 and F-35. The Biden administration’s 2025 budget request allocates $2.75 billion for NGAD research and development, set to rise to $5.72 billion by 2029.

However, this comes at a time when the Air Force is also funding other expensive projects, including:

• The B-21 Raider stealth bomber
• The LGM-35 Sentinel ICBM replacement
• The KC-46 Pegasus aerial refueling tanker

With limited resources, some within the Pentagon and Congress are questioning whether a single, ultra-expensive fighter is still the best approach. The Senate Appropriations Committee has already proposed shifting $557 million from NGAD to the CCA program, signaling a preference for autonomous systems as a cost-effective alternative.

Strategic Reassessment: A Shift Toward Drones?

The delay in NGAD’s contract award suggests that the Air Force is reconsidering its approach. Some experts argue that rather than investing in a single, ultra-capable fighter, the U.S. should spread capabilities across multiple, lower-cost platforms, including:

• Unmanned combat aircraft
• Networked sensors and AI-driven battle management systems
• Swarm drone technology for overwhelming enemy defenses

This modular approach could make U.S. air power more adaptable and cost-effective. Some lawmakers and military analysts believe autonomous aircraft will eventually play the dominant role in future wars, reducing the need for expensive, manned fighters. However, others argue that human pilots remain essential for high-stakes air combat, where split-second decision-making can determine the outcome.

Political Uncertainty: Will the New Administration Change NGAD’s Course?

The future of NGAD is also tied to political leadership. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall has indicated that the incoming Trump administration will have the final say on NGAD’s direction. If cost concerns drive decision-making, the program could see significant revisions or even a shift in funding toward alternative air superiority solutions.

The Bigger Question: How Will the U.S. Maintain Air Superiority?

Beyond NGAD, the broader challenge for the U.S. Air Force is how to maintain air dominance in the coming decades. With China developing its own sixth-generation fighter, and advancements in AI, electronic warfare, and cyber threats, the U.S. must adapt to a rapidly evolving battlefield.

Congress will play a key role in shaping NGAD’s future, weighing factors like:

• Budget constraints vs. maintaining technological superiority
• The role of manned vs. unmanned systems in future combat
• How NGAD fits into broader U.S. defense priorities

Whatever decision is made, one thing is clear: the next decade will determine whether NGAD is the future of U.S. air power—or just an ambitious project that never takes off.