Israel’s Missile Shield Falters: Why the Interception Rate Has Dropped From 90% to 65%

In a conflict where every second and missile counts, Israel’s once-celebrated missile defense system appears to be under strain. Reports now suggest that the country’s interception rate, which historically hovered around 90%, has fallen sharply to nearly 65% during the latest missile exchanges with Iran. Defense analysts and insiders point to several reasons behind this worrying decline — ranging from missile stock shortages to the introduction of more advanced Iranian weapons.

Let’s break down what’s happening.

A Steep Drop in Interceptions

According to reports from NBC and The New York Times, Iran recently launched around 400 missiles towards Israel. Of these, nearly 40 managed to bypass Israel’s air defense and strike populated areas. While a 90% interception rate might sound impressive, this dip to 65% in the latest attacks is significant for a nation that has long relied on its multi-layered defense shield.

This drop comes amid warnings from outlets like The Wall Street Journal and Newsweek that Israel’s stockpile of crucial Arrow missile interceptors is running low — a vulnerability Israel can ill afford at a time of escalating tensions.

Why Are Missiles Getting Through?

Several interconnected factors explain this drop in interception rates:

1️⃣ Depleting Interceptor Stocks

Israel’s air defense relies on a layered system:

• Iron Dome for short-range threats like rockets and mortars.

• David’s Sling for medium- to long-range rockets and cruise missiles.

• Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 for high-altitude ballistic missile threats.

Arrow interceptors are highly sophisticated and expensive, costing up to $3 million each. Their production is slow and involves a complex supply chain, partly handled by Boeing in the U.S. The current high operational tempo may be exhausting these stockpiles faster than they can be replenished.

2️⃣ Newer, Faster Iranian Missiles

Iran has reportedly deployed hypersonic missiles in these recent attacks. Capable of traveling at extreme speeds while maneuvering mid-flight, these missiles drastically reduce the time Israel’s defenses have to respond — from about 10–11 minutes in past scenarios to just 6–7 minutes now.

A senior Israeli official admitted the narrower response window makes interceptions much harder, especially when combined with mass salvos of missiles launched simultaneously.

3️⃣ Multiple-Warhead (Submunition) Missiles

Some Iranian missiles now carry multiple warheads or submunitions. In one instance, a missile dispersed around 20 submunitions from 23,000 feet, each capable of striking independently within a 16 km area.

This technique overwhelms air defense systems by multiplying targets, forcing Israel to either spread its defenses thin or prioritize critical assets — increasing the risk of some warheads getting through.

4️⃣ Possible Electronic Warfare (EW) Tactics

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it used advanced electronic warfare techniques to confuse Israeli defenses during a recent missile strike. While this claim remains unverified, Iran has demonstrated EW capabilities before — most notably when it captured a U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel stealth drone in 2011 via GPS spoofing.

If true, even limited EW disruption could mislead air defense systems, causing interceptors to miss their targets or, in rare cases, misfire.

The Manufacturing Bottleneck

Another concern is that manufacturing Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 interceptors takes time — involving sensitive technology and meticulous quality checks. The sophisticated nature of these interceptors, coupled with limited production capacity and expensive components, means Israel cannot rapidly replenish stocks during extended conflicts.

Should Israel Be Worried?

While it’s too soon to conclusively state that Israel’s missile defenses are failing, the combination of faster, smarter Iranian missiles, advanced tactics, and limited interceptor supplies presents a serious challenge.

Even if the drop to 65% interception occurred over a limited 24-hour period, it serves as a stark reminder of how quickly modern warfare evolves — and how even the most advanced defense systems can be stretched thin under sustained pressure.

For Israel, the next steps will likely involve:

• Urgently replenishing interceptor stocks.

• Upgrading systems to handle hypersonic and submunition threats.

• Enhancing electronic warfare countermeasures.

The broader takeaway for military planners worldwide: no missile shield is invincible, and technology races forward on both sides of any conflict.