India's Defence Budget Set to Surge Five-Fold by 2047, Eyes Global Power Status

India is preparing for a transformative leap in its defence sector over the next two decades, with projections indicating that the national defence budget will soar to an estimated ₹31.7 lakh crore by the year 2047. This major forecast, presented in a recent study conducted jointly by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and KPMG, outlines a nearly five-fold increase from the ₹6.8 lakh crore allocated in 2024–25.

The anticipated rise in the defence budget reflects India’s broader strategic ambitions and growing need for self-reliance in national security. As the country moves toward its 100th year of independence, this massive investment is expected to fuel not just stronger defence capabilities, but also innovation, job creation, and global competitiveness.

Alongside the budgetary surge, India’s domestic defence production is expected to rise sharply. From a current estimated value of ₹1.6 lakh crore, the sector could grow to ₹8.8 lakh crore by 2047. A similar upward trend is expected in defence exports, which are likely to reach ₹2.8 lakh crore—up from the present ₹30,000 crore. This aligns with India’s long-term vision of becoming a global hub for defence manufacturing and exporting.

One of the most significant strategic shifts highlighted in the report is the increasing share of capital expenditure in the defence budget. From 27% in 2024–25, capital outlays are projected to rise to 40% by 2047. This indicates a stronger focus on infrastructure, advanced weapon systems, and indigenous technology development—key components for building a modern and responsive military.

Research and development (R&D) will also receive a boost. Currently at 4% of the defence budget, R&D spending is expected to climb to between 8% and 10% over the next two decades. This increase is intended to accelerate innovation in high-tech areas such as drones, cyber defence, artificial intelligence, and space-based warfare.

India's defence spending, as a share of GDP, is also projected to increase from 2% to 4–5% by 2047. With this expansion, India is expected to rise from its current position as the world’s fourth-largest defence spender to the third spot globally, solidifying its role as a key geopolitical force.

However, the path ahead is not without its challenges. The report underscores that India still depends significantly on imports for critical defence technologies. This dependency continues to hinder full self-reliance and delays the maturation of domestic defence industries. Bridging this gap will require not only enhanced investment in R&D but also stronger collaboration between public and private players.

Moreover, a shortage of skilled professionals—especially in emerging defence technologies—is another pressing issue. To overcome this, the development of a robust talent pipeline and specialised training programs will be essential.

The report also flags the influence of persistent geopolitical tensions. These regional and global pressures pose a dual challenge: while they increase the urgency for defence preparedness, they also risk diverting attention and resources away from long-term development goals.

India’s strategic role in the global South and its growing leadership in South Asia make a strong case for sustained investment in defence. The report suggests that public-private partnerships will play a critical role in this journey, but the complexity of regulatory hurdles and the need for clear incentives continue to hinder broader private sector involvement.

Another barrier comes in the form of Intellectual Property (IP) rights and technology transfer constraints in international collaborations. To achieve true Atmanirbharta (self-reliance), India will need to create frameworks that both protect innovation and encourage global partners to invest and share advanced capabilities.

In conclusion, India’s defence roadmap to 2047 outlines a bold and ambitious vision—marked by higher budgets, growing exports, deeper R&D, and greater global influence. While the challenges are real, the trajectory signals a strong intent to transform India into a formidable, self-reliant defence power by its centenary year of independence.