India’s 113-km Canal Plan Set to Reshape Indus Water Distribution

Pakistan is facing a deepening water crisis after a reported 17% drop in the Indus River water flow from India, significantly impacting agriculture in the country’s southern Sindh province. This development comes at a time when India is actively pursuing plans to fully utilize its share of water from the Indus River system, including the construction of a proposed 113-kilometer canal to redirect surplus water from Jammu and Kashmir to its own states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.

The sharp reduction in water flow was recently reported by Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA). According to IRSA data from June 16, the Sindh province received just 1.33 lakh cusecs of water, compared to 1.6 lakh cusecs during the same period last year — a 16.87% drop. Punjab province also saw a smaller decline, with water supply falling to 1.26 lakh cusecs from 1.29 lakh cusecs, marking a 2.25% decrease. The reduction is severely disrupting irrigation for Kharif crops, a crucial monsoon-dependent planting season, as both river and reservoir levels remain critically low.

The decline in water flow follows a significant diplomatic rift. In April, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in the wake of a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam that claimed 26 lives. The treaty, which was signed in 1960 with the help of the World Bank, has been a cornerstone of water sharing between India and Pakistan for over six decades. It allows India to use the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) while Pakistan controls the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab). However, under certain conditions, India is also allowed limited use of the western rivers.

India’s decision to suspend the treaty has not only affected the volume of water released to Pakistan but also halted the sharing of critical river flow data. This has created further concerns in Pakistan about flood preparedness, as upstream water releases can no longer be predicted.

At the same time, India is conducting a feasibility study for a new inter-basin canal that will span 113 kilometers. The planned canal aims to divert surplus flows from the Indus system in Jammu and Kashmir to other Indian states, helping them meet agricultural and water management needs. If built, this canal will further reduce the flow of water that typically reaches Pakistan through the western rivers, tightening an already tense situation.

Pakistan’s reservoirs are now under significant stress. Major water storage facilities like Mangla and Tarbela are approaching "dead storage" levels — the point at which water can no longer flow out by gravity and requires pumping to be accessed. This has not only endangered the current cropping season but also threatens the availability of drinking water in large parts of Punjab and Sindh, the heart of Pakistan's agriculture.

Islamabad has formally protested India’s suspension of the treaty, arguing that unilateral action goes against international norms. However, New Delhi maintains that any future cooperation on the treaty will depend on Pakistan addressing India’s concerns over cross-border terrorism.

With the monsoon still weeks away and temperatures rising, the situation could soon deteriorate further. Experts warn that unless rains arrive quickly and generously, the water shortage will likely have long-term consequences for food security, agricultural productivity, and rural livelihoods across Pakistan.