India Reportedly Offered Control of Bagram Airbase by Afghanistan, Why Taliban Offered

In a development that could redefine South Asia’s strategic balance, reports suggest that Afghanistan has offered India operational access to the historic Bagram Airbase — the country’s largest military installation — in exchange for India vacating its base in Tajikistan. While no official confirmation has been issued by either New Delhi or Kabul, the news comes amid increasing tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with sources indicating that Afghanistan has granted India airspace access while considering restrictions on Pakistani flight routes.

If true, this marks a significant realignment, driven by Afghanistan’s growing concerns over Pakistan’s air power and its search for a trusted security partner. For India, the shift from Ayni Airbase in Tajikistan to Bagram in Afghanistan would bring its forward operations much closer to Pakistan’s western flank — a move with profound military and political implications.

The Strategic Weight of Bagram Airbase

Located about 60 kilometers north of Kabul, Bagram Airbase has been the centerpiece of foreign military operations in Afghanistan’s modern history. Originally built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s and massively expanded by the United States post-2001, it became the nerve center of NATO operations. The base once housed thousands of troops, massive hangars, advanced radar and surveillance systems, and one of Central Asia’s longest runways.

When U.S. forces withdrew in 2021, they left behind billions of dollars worth of equipment and an infrastructure capable of supporting large-scale air operations. From Bagram, the U.S. directed counterterrorism missions deep into Afghanistan and Pakistan, highlighting its immense geostrategic value. The airbase sits at a natural elevation that allows aerial dominance over Kabul and oversight of western Pakistan, giving any new operator a strong surveillance and response advantage.

The Reported Deal: Bagram for Tajikistan

According to emerging reports, Afghanistan’s offer to India is linked to India vacating its presence at the Ayni Airbase in Tajikistan — a facility India helped modernize in the early 2000s. The Ayni base, located near Dushanbe, was India’s first operational foothold in Central Asia, aimed at maintaining regional reach and supporting potential operations around Afghanistan.

However, Russian influence over Tajikistan and the base’s limited independence have constrained India’s operational freedom there. If India relinquishes Ayni in favor of Bagram, it would mark a shift from a Russia-dependent base in Central Asia to a directly controlled air hub in Afghanistan, much closer to the main zone of strategic concern — Pakistan.

This exchange, if implemented, would allow Afghanistan to gain India’s protection and advanced air defense systems, while India gains a more strategically relevant position for regional monitoring and defense cooperation.

Why Afghanistan Might Offer Bagram to India

The primary motivation stems from security fears. Relations between Kabul and Islamabad have deteriorated sharply, with repeated accusations of Pakistani airstrikes and drone incursions into Afghan territory. The Afghan leadership fears a direct air attack on Kabul in the event of open conflict or political escalation.

Lacking credible air defense networks, fighter aircraft, or modern surveillance infrastructure, Afghanistan finds itself exposed. Partnering with India — a nation that has provided humanitarian aid, infrastructure development, and training for Afghan forces for over two decades — appears to be the most viable security solution.

By offering Bagram to India, Afghanistan could gain access to Indian radar technology, surface-to-air defense systems, and early-warning networks. These would not only protect Kabul and the central region but also deter potential Pakistani incursions. The presence of Indian personnel and systems would serve as a security guarantee for the Afghan leadership, which sees India as a neutral and trustworthy ally.

India’s Strategic Calculus

For India, the reported offer aligns with its long-term interests in regional security and strategic depth. Bagram provides several advantages over Ayni (Tajikistan): proximity to Pakistan’s borders, logistical access through friendly Afghan channels, and a central position in the heart of South Asia.

Operating from Bagram would allow India to:

• Establish real-time surveillance over western Pakistan and the border regions.

• Deploy air defense systems that extend radar coverage across Kabul and parts of the Afghan frontier.

• Enhance regional power projection through quick-response capability.

• Strengthen Afghanistan’s defense architecture, ensuring Indian influence remains vital in Kabul’s security structure.

The move would also support India’s broader strategic agenda of countering Chinese-Pakistani coordination in the region, particularly under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) framework.

The Pakistan Factor

Any Indian military presence west of Pakistan’s borders would be seen as a serious provocation by Islamabad. Historically, Pakistan has viewed Bagram as a base of operations used against its interests — first by the Soviets, then by the Americans.

If India were to assume control or partial operation of Bagram, Pakistan’s western flank would become exposed to monitoring and potential counter-operations. In response, Pakistan might strengthen its air defenses, conduct military drills near the Durand Line, or expand intelligence coordination with China to neutralize Indian surveillance advantages.

The recent Pakistan–Afghanistan truce talks in Istanbul reportedly ended in failure, with Pakistan issuing warnings over Kabul’s growing closeness to India — further indicating a deepening divide.

Challenges and Unconfirmed Status

Despite the strategic appeal, the reported Bagram-for-Tajikistan exchange remains unverified. The Taliban-led Afghan government has publicly stated its opposition to any foreign military presence on Afghan soil, while India has officially joined other regional powers — including Russia and China — in opposing foreign military bases in Afghanistan.

Furthermore, the logistical realities are daunting. Operating from Afghanistan would require secure supply chains, over-flight permissions, and political agreements with neighboring states — conditions that are currently not in place. Until formal confirmation or satellite evidence emerges, this reported arrangement remains within the realm of strategic speculation.

Bagram’s Continuing Symbolism

Even as speculation swirls, Bagram Airbase remains a symbol of power projection in Central and South Asia. Its vast facilities, long runways, and pre-installed infrastructure make it a valuable asset for any future operator. The base once served as the command center for U.S. operations across the region, and even today, its possession would provide unmatched intelligence and air mobility advantages.

When the U.S. military withdrew, it left behind not just weapons and aircraft shelters but a strategic blueprint — one that any successor power could easily adapt for regional dominance.

If the reports of Afghanistan offering Bagram Airbase to India in exchange for vacating the Tajikistan base prove true, it would mark one of the most significant geopolitical shifts since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. For Kabul, the arrangement offers a chance to secure its skies and protect its leadership from potential Pakistani air threats. For India, it presents an opportunity to establish a forward military presence with direct strategic access to Pakistan’s western front.

However, with no official confirmation and both nations maintaining diplomatic silence, the development remains speculative but geopolitically plausible. What is certain is that Bagram continues to dominate the regional imagination — a vast, battle-tested fortress whose control could once again reshape the power balance of South Asia.