How India Could Handle a War if Iran and Saudi Arabia Join Pakistan in a Defense Pact
The recent talk of Iran potentially joining a defense pact with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has raised eyebrows in New Delhi and across global strategic circles. While the pact is still at the stage of speculation, the implications are worth analyzing — especially in the context of a possible India–Pakistan conflict. If such a bloc were to form, it would present India with the theoretical challenge of facing three Muslim-majority nations aligned together. But the reality of how this alignment would play out in an actual war reveals many limits — and opportunities for India to dominate the scenario.
Iran has hinted that it may consider closer military cooperation with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. The narrative is that “regional Islamic defense cooperation” would counter external powers and create a Muslim security bloc. But for India, this raises concerns. Historically, Iran has never openly supported India in India–Pakistan conflicts, preferring to either stay neutral or lean softly toward Pakistan — a reflection of both religious brotherhood sentiments and the fact that Iran and Pakistan share a common hostility toward Israel.
The main reason is strategic survival and influence. Iran sees Pakistan as a useful partner because both are opposed to Israel and wary of US influence. By joining a pact with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, Iran could signal unity in the Muslim world, especially when conflicts involving Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah dominate Middle Eastern security.
At the same time, Iran knows that Pakistan can provide diplomatic leverage in the Islamic bloc. But it’s important to note: Iran itself is economically weak, under sanctions, and has limited ability to project hard power abroad.
Saudi Arabia’s motivations are quite different. Its interest lies in security guarantees and manpower needs.
Houthis Rebels Threat: Saudi Arabia is locked in a grinding conflict with Yemen’s Houthis, who are heavily armed and trained by Iran. Houthis have launched missiles and drones into Saudi territory and openly call for the overthrow of the Saudi monarchy.
Need for Soldiers: The Saudi military is not large enough for prolonged ground wars. In the past, Pakistan has supplied soldiers, trainers, and security units to help defend Saudi soil. Riyadh therefore seeks Pakistani manpower to secure itself, even while it fears Iran’s influence.
Financial Leverage: For Saudi Arabia, money is the main weapon. Any pact with Pakistan largely translates into funding rather than military deployment.
It becomes particularly interesting if Iran joins the defense pact, because this changes the dynamics for Saudi Arabia. Riyadh’s primary concern is the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are armed, trained, and funded by Iran. The Houthis have become emboldened in recent years, especially as global attention has focused on Hamas and Iran in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia fears that without external support, the Houthis could attempt to destabilize the kingdom or even threaten the monarchy. This fear may push Saudi Arabia to align with Pakistan and Iran in a defense pact — not out of solidarity with Pakistan or Iran, but as a defensive measure to counter the Houthi threat. In other words, Saudi participation is motivated less by aggression against India and more by internal security concerns and the need for manpower and financial support from Pakistan.
If a war broke out between India and Pakistan with Iran and Saudi Arabia aligned:
Saudi Arabia’s Role: Saudi Arabia would not deploy soldiers against India. Instead, it would send money, financial aid, and fuel subsidies to Pakistan. With the Houthis threatening its own borders, Riyadh simply cannot afford to spare manpower.
Iran’s Role: Iran would not send soldiers either, nor would it provide significant money, since its economy is already battered by sanctions. Its support would likely come in the form of weapons, drones, and missiles, possibly through covert channels. Iran’s navy is too weak to confront India, and during wartime, it would avoid direct engagement in the Arabian Sea.
Pakistan would fight the actual war while Iran and Saudi Arabia would provide limited external support — one with weapons, the other with money.
For India, the biggest challenge would still be Pakistan, and history shows that the Indian armed forces have repeatedly demonstrated superiority. In the May 2025 conflict, Indian Armed Forces destroyed Pakistan Many bases and Command and Control Centers very easily . Indian Navy also easily neutralized Pakistan’s naval activity, forcing Pakistani ships to retreat into ports and keep their fleet hidden. Even Pakistan naval officers reportedly kept vessels in harbor rather than risk losses against India’s much larger fleet presence.
India’s Army and Air Force are more than capable of countering Pakistan in a conventional conflict and also in Nuclear Conflict. The numerical and technological superiority is well-established.
India would not need to attack Iran or Saudi Arabia directly. Instead, it could use its navy to blockade the Arabian Sea routes, cutting off their vital oil exports.
Saudi Arabia exports around 6–7 million barrels per day by sea, of which ~75% (≈5 million barrels) move through the Arabian Sea. That’s 150 million barrels lost in one month, worth $13–14 billion.
Iran exports around 1.5–2 million barrels per day, mostly through unofficial channels. Cutting off the Arabian Sea route would block 70% (≈1–1.3 million barrels/day), translating to 30–40 million barrels lost in one month, worth $3 billion.
A one-month blockade would cripple both countries’ economies without India firing a shot on their territory.
India’s Navy is among the world’s most powerful, capable of ruling both the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. With aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, and advanced destroyers, India has overwhelming superiority compared to Pakistan or Iran. Neither has the capability to match India at sea.
In the May 2025 standoff, Pakistan’s Navy essentially vanished from the waters, hiding in ports. Iran, facing similar naval inferiority, would do the same. Saudi Arabia, despite oil wealth, lacks the naval muscle to contest India’s sea power.
Even if a Pakistan–Iran–Saudi defense pact were to emerge, its effectiveness against India would be weak and largely symbolic. Saudi Arabia would be too consumed by the Houthi threat, while Iran would be constrained by sanctions and its fragile economy. Their support for Pakistan would be limited — money from Riyadh, weapons from Tehran — but not actual troops or warships.
On the other hand, India is the world’s fifth-largest economy and one of the strongest armed forces, with only the US, China, and Russia matching its overall power. With naval control of the Arabian Sea, India could choke the lifelines of both Iran and Saudi Arabia while directly defeating Pakistan in a conventional war.
If Iran joins Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in a defense pact, it will make for sensational headlines but little change in battlefield realities. India has the strength, strategy, and geography on its side. While Pakistan may hope for external help, the reality is that its partners could only offer limited financial and weapons support. India, by contrast, could cripple their economies with a maritime blockade, avoid costly escalation, and still decisively handle Pakistan militarily.
The pact, if it materializes, would be more about political symbolism and Muslim solidarity than practical military advantage. For India, it would be another challenge to manage diplomatically, but not a threat it cannot handle militarily.
✍️ This article is written by the team of The Defense News.