Ethiopia and Eritrea Edge Toward a New Conflict Over Red Sea Access

A new wave of tension is building in the Horn of Africa as Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of preparing for war, while Asmara rejects the allegations and accuses its larger neighbor of provoking instability. The renewed hostility, rooted in old territorial grievances and Ethiopia’s growing desire for access to the Red Sea, has sparked regional concern that another conflict could erupt between the two nations after two decades of uneasy peace.

For months, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been openly pressing for sea access for his landlocked country. Ethiopia, which lost its coastline when Eritrea gained independence in 1993, has since depended on Djibouti for nearly 95% of its maritime trade. But the rising cost of dependence, combined with the strategic value of the Red Sea in global trade and regional security, has made Abiy’s rhetoric increasingly assertive.

In an address to the Ethiopian parliament on October 28, Abiy stated he was “a million percent sure that Ethiopia will not remain landlocked whether anyone likes it or not.” He emphasized that Ethiopia seeks a “peaceful solution” and has called for international mediation, particularly from the United States and Europe, to broker a deal that could allow Ethiopia access to the sea through cooperation, not conflict.

However, Eritrea’s government views these remarks with alarm. Officials in Asmara, through the Ministry of Information, accused Abiy of “fomenting dangerous conflicts” and of attempting to justify potential military action. Eritrea, a country of just over 3 million people, suspects that Addis Ababa is eyeing its southern Assab port, a strategically located facility that once served as Ethiopia’s primary maritime outlet before independence.

Regional experts say Abiy’s statements appear to be laying political and moral groundwork for stronger action if diplomacy fails. “He is gradually building up an argument which can justify a more concrete military action, portraying Eritrea as a hostile neighbour,” said Kjetil Tronvoll, professor at Oslo New University College and an expert on Horn of Africa politics.

Historical Roots of the Dispute

The deep-seated mistrust between Ethiopia and Eritrea stems from their bloody border war that lasted from 1998 to 2000, killing an estimated 70,000 people. The conflict erupted after disagreements over the small border town of Badme, and though the Algiers Peace Agreement formally ended the war, resentment persisted for years.

Relations appeared to thaw in 2018, when Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki signed a peace declaration that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize a year later. However, the optimism soon faded. Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray conflict (2020–2022), in which its troops fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces but later clashed with regional militias, revived tensions.

The scars of the Tigray war remain fresh. In early October 2025, Ethiopia sent a letter to the UN Secretary-General, accusing Eritrea of “actively preparing for war” and of working with the Tigray regional government to “destabilize and fragment” Ethiopia. Eritrea dismissed the allegations as a “deceitful charade”, but analysts note that Asmara maintains informal links with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and other anti-government groups.

Why Tensions Are Rising Again

Ethiopia’s renewed maritime ambitions are central to this growing friction. For Abiy’s government, access to the Red Sea is not only a matter of trade but of national security and sovereignty. Ethiopia’s economy, one of Africa’s largest, relies heavily on imports and exports that pass through Djibouti, costing the country hundreds of millions of dollars annually in port fees.

The Assab port in Eritrea offers a geographically shorter and potentially cheaper route. But any move toward it — even diplomatic — touches a raw nerve in Asmara, which views Ethiopian interest as a threat to its sovereignty. Eritrea’s response has been to strengthen regional ties, notably with Egypt, a long-time rival of Ethiopia over Nile River water rights.

President Isaias Afwerki visited Cairo recently, where he met Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who reaffirmed Egypt’s “commitment to supporting Eritrea’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Analysts see this growing Eritrea–Egypt alignment as a counterweight to Addis Ababa, especially amid Egypt’s ongoing dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile.

A Region on Edge

Satellite imagery earlier this year showed Ethiopian and Eritrean troops massing along parts of the border, though those deployments appeared temporary. Western intelligence sources note that there is no confirmed evidence of an imminent conflict, but they acknowledge that tensions are rising sharply.

“The atmosphere is increasingly fragile,” said Alex Vines of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The Egypt factor, the unresolved Tigray issue, and Ethiopia’s renewed push for Red Sea access have all combined to create a volatile situation.”

Both governments have remained silent on the latest accusations. But observers warn that the situation could deteriorate quickly if diplomatic channels fail. For Ethiopia, with its population of over 130 million, the lack of a coastline is seen as an economic and strategic handicap. For Eritrea, defending its sovereignty against a larger neighbor is a matter of survival and national identity.

As Abiy Ahmed calls for “peaceful mediation,” and Eritrea warns against “provocation,” the Horn of Africa once again finds itself at a familiar crossroads — where economic ambition, historical grievances, and regional rivalries intersect. Whether the path forward leads to cooperation or confrontation will depend on whether both sides can turn their competing visions of the Red Sea into a shared opportunity, rather than another flashpoint of war.