Could Turkey Sell Its Unused Russian S-400 Missiles to India or Pakistan ?

Ankara finds itself at a strategic crossroads. The acquisition of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system in 2019 was a move intended to bolster Turkey's defense capabilities. Instead, it has strained its relationship with the United States and NATO allies, leading to Turkey's ousting from the F-35 stealth fighter program and triggering sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

The Genesis of the S-400 Predicament

Turkey's decision to procure the S-400 system was met with immediate apprehension from the West. The primary concern was the potential compromise of NATO's integrated defense systems, especially with fears that the Russian system could be used to glean intelligence on the F-35's capabilities. Despite these concerns, Turkey proceeded with the purchase, receiving the first batch in July 2019. However, due to the mounting diplomatic pressures, the S-400 units have remained inactive, essentially gathering dust.

Cavit Caglar's Proposal: A Controversial Solution

In a bid to navigate out of this quagmire, former Turkish minister Cavit Caglar recently proposed selling the dormant S-400 systems to either Pakistan or India. This suggestion is layered with strategic considerations:

1. Mending Fences with the West: Offloading the S-400s could serve as a conciliatory gesture towards the U.S., potentially paving the way for Turkey's reintegration into the F-35 program and the lifting of certain sanctions.

2. Economic Gains: The sale would inject much-needed revenue into Turkey's economy, which has been grappling with inflation and currency devaluation.

3. Operational Rationality: Maintaining an advanced missile system without active deployment or integration into national defense grids is both costly and impractical.

Potential Buyers: India vs. Pakistan

Pakistan's Strategic Aspirations: Historically, Pakistan has maintained robust defense ties with Turkey, underscored by collaborations like the MILGEM warship project. Acquiring the S-400 would be a significant leap in Pakistan's air defense capabilities, potentially counterbalancing India's military advancements. However, there’s a catch. Russia, the original manufacturer, has stringent end-user agreements. Selling to Pakistan might irk Moscow, leading to a refusal in providing essential maintenance, missile stocks, and spare parts—a critical lifeline for such sophisticated systems.

India's Calculated Moves: India already operates the S-400 system, having inked a $5.43 billion deal with Russia in 2018. While acquiring additional units could bolster its defenses, the geopolitical optics are complex. India's recent decision to terminate a naval ship contract with Turkey indicates underlying tensions. Moreover, India's diversification of defense partnerships, especially with Western nations, might make another major Russian system purchase less palatable.

Russia's Stance: The Unseen Puppeteer

Russia's role cannot be understated. Any transfer of the S-400 system requires Moscow's nod, given the intricate maintenance and supply chain dependencies. Selling to Pakistan, a nation with whom Russia has had a historically tepid relationship, might be a red line. Conversely, selling to India aligns with Russia's strategic interests, but as previously noted, India's existing arsenal and geopolitical calculations might render the deal moot.

Geopolitical Ripple Effects

The sale of the S-400s, irrespective of the buyer, would reverberate across South Asia's delicate power dynamics:

• Escalation of Arms Race: If Pakistan acquires the system, it could trigger an arms race, compelling India to further ramp up its defenses.
• Regional Stability Concerns: The balance of power in the subcontinent is a tightrope walk. Introducing advanced weaponry could destabilize this equilibrium, leading to heightened tensions.

Conclusion: Navigating the Labyrinth

Turkey's contemplation over selling its S-400 systems is emblematic of the intricate dance nations perform on the global stage. Balancing national defense imperatives, economic needs, and geopolitical alliances is no small feat. As Ankara weighs its options, it must tread cautiously, ensuring that short-term gains do not precipitate long-term strategic pitfalls.