China's Naval Ambitions: Aiming for Parity with the United States

China's naval power is rapidly expanding, setting ambitious goals that could soon challenge the United States' dominance on the seas. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is building vessels at an astonishing rate, far outpacing any other nation. While the sheer number of ships does not necessarily equate to naval superiority, it does signal China's growing maritime capabilities and strategic ambitions.

Thomas Shugart, Adjunct Senior Fellow for the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, highlighted the scale of China’s shipbuilding efforts. Using satellite imagery, Shugart revealed that China is constructing nuclear-powered submarines at Huludao and advanced destroyers at Dalian Shipyard. This impressive production line also includes corvettes, frigates, and potentially a new aircraft carrier at Shanghai's Jiangmen Shipyard.

Shugart expressed concerns about China's approach, noting that while the country aims to defend its regional waters and secure its position in the Pacific, it does so in a coercive manner that could drive conflict with other nations. Beijing’s strategy involves using its naval power to assert control over contested waters and intimidate neighboring countries, leading to increased tensions in the region.

Emma Salisbury, a Seapower Research Fellow at the Council on Geostrategy in the UK, underscored the significance of China’s naval buildup. She described the PLAN as "arguably the second most-capable blue-water navy, after that of the United States," and noted China's goal to transform its military into a world-class force by 2049. This ambition involves gaining control over critical areas within the First Island Chain, which includes Taiwan, the Senkaku Islands, and the Spratly Islands.

China’s maritime strategy extends beyond the PLAN. The China Coast Guard, the largest maritime law enforcement fleet globally, and the maritime militia play crucial roles in regional disputes. These forces, often interwoven with civilian vessels, enhance China’s ability to project power and influence in contested waters.

The dual-use nature of China’s shipyards, where civilian and military vessels are constructed side by side, provides a strategic advantage. Western companies, indirectly funding these shipyards, contribute to China’s shipbuilding efficiency. This integrated approach enables China to swiftly switch production from civilian to military vessels, bolstering its naval capabilities.

China's expanding naval power poses challenges for the United States and its allies. While the US Navy (USN) remains the most powerful in the world, China's rapid shipbuilding and modernization efforts are closing the gap. Shugart suggested that the US might need to consider building naval hulls in allied countries like Japan or South Korea if it cannot enhance its shipbuilding capacity.

China's lack of traditional allies contrasts with the extensive network of partners supporting the USN. Countries like Japan and South Korea provide critical bases and logistical support, while NATO navies can help free up American ships for the Indo-Pacific region. However, China is developing strategic relationships, as evidenced by its presence at the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia.

Submarines are a key area of focus for China. While there are qualitative differences between Chinese and American submarines, the future Type 095 class could narrow this gap. Shugart highlighted the strategic use of submarines, noting that China might use them to blockade Taiwan, target American aircraft carriers, or launch cruise missiles against Guam and Hawaii.

China’s involvement in anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden is not purely altruistic. These missions serve as a training ground for blue-water operations, providing Chinese officers with valuable experience and testing logistical lines. However, China’s promises to protect international shipping have been questioned, particularly in light of recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

As China continues to expand its naval capabilities, the world watches closely. The PLAN’s growth reflects broader geopolitical shifts and raises critical questions about the future balance of power on the seas. Whether this naval buildup leads to increased cooperation or heightened conflict remains to be seen.