China's Army Drills Near NATO's Border: A Strategic Warning

This week, China commenced joint military exercises with Belarus, staging maneuvers on NATO’s eastern frontier in a clear sign of escalating tensions between Beijing and the US-led defense alliance. These "antiterrorist" exercises, conducted on Russian ally Belarus' soil near the Polish border, coincide with NATO leaders gathering for a summit in Washington, where the ongoing war in Ukraine is a major agenda item.

The joint drills began on July 8 in Brest, a city positioned right on the border with Poland. According to a statement from the Chinese defense ministry, the exercises are set to continue until mid-July. While the exact number of Chinese soldiers involved remains undisclosed, the statement emphasized that the maneuvers aim to enhance combat techniques and deepen cooperation between the two armies. Chinese diplomatic officials have asserted that the exercises are not directed at any specific country.

However, the Polish defense ministry has criticized the timing of these drills, warning that the operations could be exploited for disinformation and propaganda purposes to align with the NATO summit. Despite their limited scale, the presence of Chinese troops on NATO’s doorstep and in a country used by Russia as a launchpad for its invasion of Ukraine has drawn significant attention.

Analysts believe that the choice of date and location for the exercises was deliberate, intended to send a clear message to NATO. Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center, a foreign policy and defense think tank, noted that multilateral exercises often serve political purposes. She pointed out that while China had previously conducted anti-terrorism exercises in Belarus between 2011 and 2018, this is the first occurrence since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The strategic timing of these drills reflects China's approach to signaling its opposition to NATO's activities. Alice Ekman, a senior analyst for Asia at the European Union Institute for Security Studies, highlighted that China has a history of organizing joint exercises to coincide with significant international developments. For instance, China held exercises with Russia in the East China Sea close to Japanese islands in April 2023, coinciding with a trilateral summit involving the US, Japan, and South Korea. Similarly, China conducted military maneuvers in the South China Sea in May 2024, during a meeting between the US, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia.

China's growing hostility towards NATO is rooted in a belief that the alliance is working to contain China at Washington’s behest. Beijing is particularly concerned about NATO's expanding role in the Asia-Pacific region. This animosity is compounded by historical grievances, such as the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade by a NATO plane in 1999, and perceptions of NATO overstepping its geographical boundaries in conflicts like those in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan.

As NATO integrates the perceived threat from China into its strategic planning, Beijing's actions near NATO's border are likely intended to reinforce its stance and challenge the alliance's influence. The ongoing exercises with Belarus are a potent reminder of the complex geopolitical dynamics at play and the increasing militarization of international diplomacy.