Bharat Forecast System: India to Pioneer the World’s First High-Resolution Global Weather Model

In a monumental leap for atmospheric sciences and Earth observation capabilities, India is poised to become the first country in the world to operate a high-resolution global weather forecasting system, aptly named the Bharat Forecast System (BFS). This groundbreaking initiative, led by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), marks a transformative step in the country’s ambition to emerge as a leader in climate modeling and disaster preparedness. With this system, India will not only serve its own billion-plus population with unparalleled accuracy but also provide meteorological services on a truly global scale — a feat previously unachieved at this resolution by any nation.

The Technology Behind Bharat Forecast System

At the heart of the Bharat Forecast System lies a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with a resolution of 5 km x 5 km globally, compared to the 12 km x 12 km or coarser grids used in most leading weather models today. This allows the model to capture smaller-scale weather phenomena, such as thunderstorms, cyclonic circulations, and heavy rainfall events, with much greater fidelity.

The system is powered by advanced data assimilation algorithms, integrating real-time information from satellites, Doppler weather radars, buoys, aircraft, weather balloons, and land-based observational stations. Crucially, the BFS leverages India's growing network of satellites, including INSAT-3D/3DR and SCATSAT-1, alongside future missions like Oceansat-3 and the upcoming Mausam satellite.

To manage the sheer computational demands of such high-resolution modeling, India will deploy one of the world’s fastest weather-dedicated supercomputers, expected to have a processing capacity exceeding 30 petaflops, potentially surpassing even those used by NOAA (USA) and ECMWF (Europe).

A Global Benchmark: How BFS Compares to Other Leading Systems

Globally, countries and organizations maintain sophisticated weather forecasting systems:

• ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts): Regarded as the gold standard for medium-range forecasting, the ECMWF model operates at approximately 9 km resolution, offering 15-day global forecasts with high accuracy. However, BFS's 5 km resolution will provide better spatial granularity.

• NOAA (USA): The Global Forecast System (GFS) has been recently upgraded to the FV3 dynamical core, operating at a 13 km resolution globally. NOAA also maintains the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) system, but it's limited to the continental US.

• UK Met Office: Uses the Unified Model, with global forecasts at 10 km resolution, and finer resolution models only for UK and surrounding areas.

• Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA): Operates its GSM (Global Spectral Model) at about 20 km resolution, though Japan excels in typhoon forecasting with regional models.

While these systems are highly advanced, they either operate at coarser resolution globally or reserve their high-resolution models for national or regional scales. India’s BFS stands out by offering uniform 5 km resolution coverage across the entire globe, a technical and computational marvel.

Strategic Significance of Bharat Forecast System

1. Global Climate Stewardship: BFS underscores India’s shift from being a data consumer to a data provider in the realm of meteorological and climate services. It will empower developing nations, especially in Africa and South Asia, with free access to precise forecasts — a role similar to what the ECMWF plays for Europe.

2. Disaster Resilience: India is prone to extreme weather events like cyclones, floods, and droughts. With a high-resolution model, local authorities can issue more accurate and timely warnings, potentially saving thousands of lives annually.

3. Agricultural Productivity: Given India’s large agri-dependent population, BFS can support precision agriculture, helping farmers decide optimal sowing times, irrigation schedules, and harvest periods with better weather predictability.

4. Aviation, Maritime, and Energy Sectors: High-resolution forecasts will benefit air traffic management, shipping routes, renewable energy forecasting (solar and wind), and urban infrastructure planning.

What Comes Next

The Bharat Forecast System is expected to be operational by mid-to-late 2025, with a phased rollout starting in the Indian subcontinent. The system will incorporate machine learning modules to refine predictive accuracy over time, especially in complex terrains like the Himalayas and coastal regions.

The BFS is part of India’s broader vision under the National Mission on Weather and Climate Services (NMWCS), which also includes enhanced ocean modeling, monsoon forecasting, and urban microclimate monitoring.

Final Thoughts

With the launch of the Bharat Forecast System, India is not just catching up with the global elite in weather science — it is setting the new benchmark. In a world grappling with climate volatility and an increasing frequency of extreme weather events, BFS represents Bharat’s scientific resilience, ambition, and leadership.

This is more than a technological achievement — it is a powerful expression of India’s commitment to "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam" — the world is one family — by offering its most advanced weather intelligence to humanity at large.