After Russian Su-35s Fail to Arrive, Iran Bets on 40 China’s J-10C to Revive Its Crumbling Air Power

In a dramatic shift of defense posture, Iran is on the verge of finalizing a deal with China to acquire over 40 Chengdu J-10C “Vigorous Dragon” fighter jets, as the much-anticipated Russian Su-35 deliveries remain largely undelivered and diplomatically frozen. This emerging deal marks a significant milestone in Iran’s long-standing effort to modernize its aged and sanction-stricken air force, which has proven increasingly vulnerable—especially after recent precision strikes by Israel and the United States.

From Moscow to Beijing: A Pivot in Alliances

Iran’s move comes after the collapse of the 2023 Su-35 agreement with Russia, which promised to deliver advanced fighters but resulted in only a fraction being transferred—if at all. The reasons for the stall range from Russia’s own fleet demands during its prolonged military campaign in Ukraine to mounting Western pressure discouraging arms transfers to Iran. For Tehran, the Russian option has become unreliable.

Enter China. Discussions between Tehran and Beijing over the J-10C date back to 2015, but they were initially hindered by U.S.-led sanctions, currency constraints, and diplomatic hesitations. Now, however, with China reportedly more open to barter-based agreements and motivated to deepen its defense ties in the Middle East, the previously shelved plan appears to be fast-tracked. Reports suggest that Iran is pushing for deliveries to begin as early as 2026.

Why the J-10C?

The Chengdu J-10C is a 4.5-generation multirole fighter that comes equipped with an AESA radar, high-agility canard-delta design, and compatibility with advanced Chinese weaponry, including the PL-10 short-range and PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles. With a combat radius of over 1,000 km and modern sensor fusion, it promises to replace Iran’s aging MiG-29s, F-4 Phantoms, and F-14 Tomcats, which have seen decades of attrition and minimal upgrades.

But while the J-10C may provide a major step up from Iran’s current capabilities, serious questions remain about its effectiveness in contested airspace—especially after its underwhelming performance during Operation Sindoor, a major joint Indo-Israeli military exercise earlier this year.

Doubts After the Sindoor Debacle

During Operation Sindoor, where Pakistan Air Force J-10Cs were pitted against Indian Rafale F3Rs, the Chinese jet's reputation suffered significantly. Reports from Indian Air Force sources claim that multiple PL-15 missiles failed to detonate or were jammed mid-air, highlighting potential weaknesses in Chinese avionics, electronic warfare resistance, and missile reliability.

This has cast serious doubts on whether the J-10C would be effective against Israel’s F-35I Adirs or American stealth and electronic warfare platforms, both of which operate at a much higher technological threshold. Iran’s prospective adversaries not only field fifth-generation fighters but also possess dense electronic warfare, airborne early warning systems, and stand-off strike capabilities. Against such forces, the J-10C, while formidable in its class, may still find itself outmatched.

Strategic Implications

Beyond the hardware, this deal carries wider geopolitical reverberations. A successful delivery of 40+ J-10Cs would mark the largest known China-Iran arms transaction since the 1990s, pushing the two countries into a more overt military alliance. It also signals a growing Chinese footprint in the Middle East, not just economically via the Belt and Road Initiative, but now militarily.

Moreover, Iran’s air force modernization—albeit modest in comparison to Gulf Arab and Israeli forces—could alter local airpower balance calculations, especially in conflicts over Iraq, Syria, and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran might gain improved interception capability, precision strike reach, and air patrol capacity, which have been sorely lacking in recent years.

The Iranian Air Force’s plunge into Chinese arms waters is a bold—but uncertain—step. If the J-10C purchase goes through, it will undoubtedly provide a significant leap in capability for Tehran’s outdated air fleet. However, whether these fighters can survive the real test of modern high-tech warfare—especially against Israel and the United States—remains highly debatable.

For Iran, this deal is less about gaining superiority and more about plugging a glaring air defense hole left open by failed Russian promises. But in choosing the Vigorous Dragon, Tehran may find itself wielding a sword with a questionable edge.