After 25 Years in Orbit, US–Russia Enter Endgame Talks to Deorbit the ISS by 2030

MOSCOW / WASHINGTON : After more than a quarter-century circling the Earth as the most ambitious joint project in human spaceflight, the International Space Station (ISS) is entering its final, irreversible phase. Russian and American space officials are preparing for a decisive series of negotiations that will determine not whether the ISS will be destroyed, but precisely how and when the 450-ton orbital laboratory will be brought down safely before the end of the decade.

The confirmation came this week from Roscosmos Director General Dmitry Bakanov, who said that while the station’s operational life has been formally extended, the emphasis has now shifted from utilization to controlled disposal. The talks, expected to intensify this year, mark the beginning of what both sides privately describe as the most complex engineering challenge the ISS program has ever faced.

From Extension to Exit Strategy

Under current agreements, NASA plans to operate the ISS until 2030, while Russia has committed only through 2028. That two-year discrepancy has emerged as the central fault line in the negotiations, because the station’s ability to maintain altitude depends heavily on propulsion systems housed in the Russian segment.

Bakanov said Roscosmos has already completed a draft technical program for deorbiting the ISS, estimating that the full sequence—from preparatory maneuvers to final reentry—would take roughly two and a half years. That timeline implies that irreversible steps must begin well before 2030, even if astronauts continue living aboard the station during its final operational phase.

Engineers on both sides warn that delaying decisions could increase the risk of an uncontrolled descent. As the station ages, its orbit naturally decays due to atmospheric drag, forcing regular reboosts to prevent an unplanned reentry.

How the ISS Will Be Brought Down

The planned end of the ISS is not a single dramatic plunge, but a carefully staged process. Once the final crew departs, a dedicated vehicle will attach to the station and gradually lower its orbit. The final burn will send the structure into a steep trajectory toward Point Nemo, a remote region of the South Pacific often called the world’s “spacecraft cemetery,” where surviving debris is expected to fall harmlessly into the ocean.

NASA has already moved ahead with its own solution. In 2025, the agency awarded a contract worth nearly $1 billion to SpaceX to develop the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle (USDV). The spacecraft is based on an enlarged Dragon design, fitted with dozens of Draco engines and carrying far more propellant than any previous Dragon mission.

According to NASA officials, the USDV is intended to function as a powerful space tug, capable of steering the ISS through its final maneuvers even if Russian propulsion is unavailable late in the process. Russian officials, however, have continued to argue that any deorbit plan must be fully coordinated, given the deeply integrated nature of the station.

The Russian Module Question

One of the most contentious issues is the future of Russia’s newer ISS modules, particularly Nauka, which was launched in 2021 after years of delays. Roscosmos has proposed detaching these modules to serve as the foundation of a future Russian Orbital Station (ROS) once the ISS partnership ends.

Recent internal technical assessments, however, have cast doubt on that plan. Engineers have warned that metal fatigue and weaknesses in older docking nodes could make separation risky, raising the possibility of structural damage to both the departing modules and the remaining station.

The dilemma is stark: if Russia withdraws in 2028, the ISS loses its primary propulsion and attitude-control capabilities. If it stays until 2030, the modules themselves may be too degraded to reuse. The issue underscores how tightly coupled the station’s international architecture has become after decades of continuous modification and expansion.

A Symbolic End to a Unique Partnership

Since its first modules were launched in 1998, the International Space Station has been continuously inhabited since 2000, hosting astronauts from more than a dozen countries and supporting tens of thousands of scientific experiments. It survived the end of the Space Shuttle era, multiple geopolitical crises, and the near-total collapse of U.S.–Russian cooperation on Earth.

Now, both partners are looking elsewhere. NASA is backing a mix of private commercial space stations in low Earth orbit while focusing government efforts on the Moon through the Gateway program. Russia is pursuing ROS as a sovereign successor, designed for higher-inclination orbits and potential civil-military dual use.

For Bakanov, the moment is as much about responsibility as legacy. “The station has served its purpose,” he said. “Our task now is to ensure its final chapter is written safely, so that it does not become a threat to the planet it observed for nearly three decades.”

As negotiations move forward, the fate of humanity’s most expensive and enduring orbital outpost now depends not on discovery or diplomacy, but on precision, timing, and an orderly end.