Afghanistan’s Alleged Airstrike on Lahore: What Really Happened and Why Pakistan Was Vulnerable

A sudden wave of reports has flooded social media claiming that Afghan forces launched an airstrike on Pakistan’s city of Lahore, killing at least 15+ Pakistani soldiers. The attack, allegedly carried out using U.S.-made A-29 Super Tucano aircraft, has stirred up regional tension and confusion. While official confirmations remain limited, this event—if proven—marks an unprecedented escalation in South Asia’s volatile security environment.

What Happened and the Claims

According to emerging reports and social media footage, Afghan Air Force pilots, believed to be operating A-29 Super Tucano light attack aircraft, allegedly crossed into Pakistani airspace and conducted precision strikes on military positions near Lahore, Pakistan’s cultural and strategic hub. Some Afghan sources claim the operation targeted “terror infrastructure” allegedly linked to cross-border attacks inside Afghanistan.

Afghan channels have described the strike as retaliation for recent Pakistani air operations inside Afghan territory, which, according to Kabul, killed several civilians and militants. Islamabad, however, has denied striking Afghan territory and called the Lahore strike report “fabricated propaganda.”

So far, no major international news agency has independently verified the Lahore airstrike. The evidence—videos and satellite images circulating online—remains unconfirmed, though several independent analysts acknowledge that intense clashes have indeed erupted along the Durand Line, with both sides suffering casualties.

The Aircraft Used – A-29 Super Tucano

The Embraer A-29 Super Tucano is a turboprop light-attack aircraft designed for counter-insurgency and border patrol operations. The U.S. supplied dozens of these aircraft to Afghanistan before 2021, training Afghan pilots to operate them in high-altitude environments.

The A-29 can carry machine guns, rockets, and precision-guided bombs, with a range of over 500 km—enough to theoretically reach Lahore from advanced Afghan bases near Khost or Jalalabad. However, executing such a deep strike mission would require precise coordination, refueling logistics, and evasion of Pakistani radar coverage.

How Could Afghanistan Strike Lahore?

While the A-29 is capable of reaching Pakistani airspace, conducting a strike as far east as Lahore is both bold and risky. Sources suggest that Afghan pilots may have exploited gaps in Pakistan’s western air defense radar coverage, taking advantage of low-altitude terrain and outdated detection systems along the Afghan frontier.

This opportunity emerged due to a key military reality: Pakistan’s air defense network has been severely weakened since the May 2025 conflict with India. During that brief but intense confrontation, India’s precision air campaigns—especially using standoff weapons, decoys, and electronic warfare systems—reportedly destroyed or disabled a large part of Pakistan’s surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites, radar stations, and command centers.

As a result, Pakistan today faces a shortage of operational air defense systems, especially modern long-range interceptors. Following the 2025 conflict, Islamabad shifted most of its remaining radar and SAM assets to its eastern border with India, leaving western regions such as Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa exposed.

When the alleged Afghan strike occurred, Pakistan’s defensive coverage over Punjab’s western flank was reportedly thin, enabling limited penetration by low-flying aircraft.

Why Pakistan Didn’t Expect an Attack from Afghanistan

Historically, Pakistan’s military doctrine has focused overwhelmingly on India as the primary threat axis. While tensions with Afghanistan have existed for decades, Islamabad largely discounted the possibility of an air attack from the west—believing the Taliban-led Afghan regime lacked both intent and capability for such operations.

Moreover, many in Pakistan’s defense establishment assumed that most Afghan Air Force assets, including the A-29s, were destroyed, abandoned, or flown out of the country in 2021 when the Taliban took power. That assumption may have been misplaced, as evidence shows a few serviceable aircraft remained in Afghanistan or were reactivated using local expertise and parts sourced via informal channels.

What Afghanistan Claims

Afghan government officials (and some Taliban-linked media) have stated that the strike was a defensive response to repeated Pakistani incursions, alleging that Pakistan conducted air raids inside Afghan territory earlier this week targeting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts. Afghanistan’s claim is that this was “a message of deterrence,” aimed at preventing further Pakistani violations of its sovereignty.

They also emphasized that Afghan forces did not target civilians, asserting the operation was directed only at Pakistani military positions near a “forward logistics site.”

Pakistan’s Response and Military Losses

Pakistani military sources have not confirmed any Afghan aircraft penetration or losses in Lahore. However, unofficial military-linked channels acknowledge that border installations and troop positions were hit near the Punjab–Khyber region, with around 15 soldiers reportedly killed and several vehicles destroyed.

The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Pakistan’s defense media wing, has remained mostly silent, likely to avoid public panic or acknowledgment of airspace vulnerability so close to Lahore—Pakistan’s second-largest city and a symbol of national pride.

Broader Regional Implications

If verified, the strike—conducted by Afghanistan’s own air assets—would mark the first instance of a Taliban-led force conducting a conventional aerial attack against Pakistan. This would fundamentally alter regional security equations, showing that Kabul is capable of limited but precise military operations beyond its borders.

It also highlights Pakistan’s defensive fragility post-2025, with much of its anti-aircraft network destroyed or redeployed. Islamabad’s once formidable low-to-medium altitude defense grid—built around Chinese LY-80, HQ-9P, and U.S.-era radars—remains partially functional but overstretched.

Strategically, this situation leaves Pakistan sandwiched between two fronts—India in the east and Afghanistan in the west—without sufficient layered protection. The May 2025 conflict drastically shifted Pakistan’s air doctrine from offensive deterrence to reactive survival, limiting its ability to counter simultaneous threats.

While the alleged Afghan airstrike on Lahore remains unverified, the episode underscores serious vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s defense architecture. Years of attrition, economic strain, and the 2025 conflict with India have left its air defense systems fragmented and its radar network stretched thin.

Even if this incident turns out to be exaggerated or misreported, the message is clear: Pakistan’s western skies are no longer immune. The idea that Afghanistan could launch any form of air raid on Pakistan—real or rumored—reflects how dramatically the regional balance has shifted in just a few years.