Why Israel May See Pakistan as Its Next Threat After Iran: The Nuclear Danger Nobody Talks About

As tensions between Israel and Iran continue to dominate global headlines, some security analysts warn of another, potentially greater threat lurking in the background: Pakistan. While Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been the focus of Israeli military planning for decades, Pakistan’s existing nuclear arsenal — the only one in the Islamic world — presents unique and deeply concerning challenges for Israel’s security. Recent comments by Iranian officials and troubling intelligence reports have only added fuel to this growing concern.

Pakistan: The Only Nuclear-Armed Islamic Nation

Since 1998, when Pakistan successfully tested its first nuclear weapons, it has held the distinction of being the only Muslim-majority country with an operational nuclear arsenal. With an estimated stockpile of 160-170 warheads (as per various open-source intelligence estimates), Pakistan possesses nuclear capability far beyond any other Islamic nation. While Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is officially India-centric, the rhetoric from sections of its political and military elite has, on occasion, broadened to include Israel. Over the years, some Pakistani leaders and extremist voices have made veiled or direct threats about the potential use of these weapons against Israel in a broader “defense of the Islamic world.”

This, combined with the fact that Pakistan's nuclear technology was developed under a clandestine program led by Dr. A.Q. Khan — a program later found to have shared technology with Iran, Libya, and North Korea — underscores the risk of nuclear technology leakage. Indeed, it was Pakistan’s nuclear smuggling network that provided Iran with key know-how on uranium enrichment centrifuges in the 1990s and early 2000s, according to IAEA reports and declassified Western intelligence documents.

Terrorism and Pakistan’s Fragile Command

What particularly alarms Israel — as well as the United States and European powers — is the perceived vulnerability of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal to internal instability and extremist infiltration. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are stored at multiple sites across the country, under the control of its military’s Strategic Plans Division. But the country’s history of coups, internal dissent, and the presence of powerful jihadist groups raise legitimate fears. Could these weapons, or the technology behind them, fall into the wrong hands?

This concern is echoed in numerous U.S. and Israeli assessments. Successive U.S. administrations have quietly worked with Pakistan to enhance nuclear security measures, yet many experts believe that the risk of insider threats or theft remains dangerously high.

Recent Iranian Remarks Deepen Worries

Iranian officials, emboldened by what they see as Pakistan’s unchallenged nuclear status, have hinted at the need for closer cooperation in resisting Israel. In a recent interview, Mohsen Rezaei, a senior Iranian official and former IRGC commander, stated:

“The Muslim world must stand united with all its means, including nuclear science and missiles, to defend against Zionist aggression. Pakistan’s strength is the strength of the ummah (Islamic community).”

Such remarks, interpreted by Israeli strategists as encouragement for deeper nuclear ties between Pakistan and Iran, have raised alarm bells. They feed into longstanding Israeli fears that Pakistan’s nuclear assets might one day directly or indirectly support Iranian ambitions — or be shared in an act of Islamic solidarity during a major conflict.

Pakistan’s Missile Capability and Range to Israel

One of the most alarming aspects for Israeli planners is that Pakistan has developed missiles capable of striking Israeli territory. The distance between Pakistan and Israel by air is approximately 3,375 kilometers (2,097 miles). Pakistan’s missile force includes:

• Shaheen-III: A solid-fueled ballistic missile with an estimated range of 2,750 km and a payload capacity of about 1,000 kg. Though this is slightly short of direct reach, launches from Pakistan’s western regions or with lighter payloads could bring Israel within range.

• Potential future developments: There have been reports and speculations about longer-range missile designs (e.g., Ghauri-III or Shaheen variants) capable of exceeding 3,000 km.

These capabilities mean that, in theory, Pakistan could target Israel with nuclear or conventional warheads, either directly or through future missile improvements.

Why Israel Might Act

From Israel’s perspective, Pakistan represents a dangerous and unpredictable nuclear threat. Unlike Iran, Pakistan already possesses nuclear weapons. Unlike Iran, Pakistan has a proven record of sharing nuclear technology. And unlike Iran, Pakistan’s internal instability makes it a potentially greater danger, as its nuclear weapons could be seized or used by extremist actors.

If Israeli intelligence concluded that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons were at risk of falling into terrorist hands, or that Pakistan was covertly aiding Iran’s nuclear program further, Israel might feel compelled to act — whether through covert sabotage, cyber operations, or in an extreme scenario, preemptive strikes.

While Israel’s immediate focus remains on Iran, Pakistan looms as a potentially greater threat: a nuclear-armed Islamic country with an unstable internal environment, missile capability that could threaten Israel, and a troubling history of proliferation. For Israeli security planners, the nightmare scenario is clear — and it might one day force Israel and its allies to take decisive, difficult actions in the name of survival.