Taiwan Receive First U.S. Abrams Tanks: Can They Stand Up to the PLA?

After years of anticipation, Taiwan will finally receive its first batch of U.S.-made M1A2T Abrams main battle tanks by the end of 2024. This delivery is part of a larger strategy to modernize Taiwan’s defenses amid rising tensions with mainland China. However, with modern warfare rapidly evolving, many are questioning whether these tanks are up to the task of countering the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and its advanced military capabilities.

A Long-Awaited Delivery

Taiwan’s journey to acquire these tanks began in 2019, when the U.S. approved the sale of 108 Abrams tanks to strengthen Taiwan’s defense posture. This comes at a critical time, with the island bolstering its ability to repel any potential amphibious assault from the PLA. The first shipment, consisting of 38 tanks, is expected to arrive in December. The remaining 70 will be delivered over the next few years, with the final batch arriving by 2026.

While the tanks are a powerful addition to Taiwan’s defenses, some analysts wonder whether their capabilities match the modern threats Taiwan faces, particularly from the PLA’s missile, naval, and drone arsenals.

The Abrams Tank: A Force to Reckon With?

The M1A2T Abrams is a variant of the U.S. Army's M1A2 SEPv2, adapted for Taiwan's defense needs. Known for its advanced technology, the Abrams is equipped with a 120mm smoothbore cannon, capable of firing a range of ammunition, including armor-piercing fin-stabilized discarding sabot (APFSDS) rounds. The gun can penetrate up to 850mm of homogenous steel, giving it an edge in tank-on-tank battles. Its range of up to 4,000 meters allows it to engage enemy forces from a safe distance, which could prove crucial in defending against a PLA coastal assault.

In terms of protection, the M1A2T is equipped with advanced composite armor and explosive reactive armor (ERA), providing significant defense against both direct fire and anti-tank missiles. It’s powered by a gas turbine engine, allowing it to reach speeds of up to 42 mph (67 km/h) on roads and 30 mph (48 km/h) off-road, ensuring agility in both open and rugged terrains.

Taiwan’s defense ministry sees the Abrams as an upgrade from its aging fleet of M60A3 and M48 Patton tanks, which have long been considered outdated. The PLA’s Type 99 tank is often cited as a comparable platform, but many believe the Abrams' superior firepower and mobility give it a clear advantage. However, much of this depends on how the tanks are deployed.

Terrain and Modern Threats: A Challenge for the Abrams?

While the Abrams tank is technologically advanced, Taiwan's unique geography presents challenges. Taiwan's landscape is mountainous and densely urbanized in certain areas, which could limit the mobility of these heavy tanks. In urban environments, the Abrams’ large size and weight could make it difficult to maneuver, making them vulnerable to attacks by lighter and more agile forces.

One significant concern is the evolving nature of modern warfare. In recent conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, tanks have increasingly been targeted by drones and anti-tank weapons. As demonstrated, tanks, including models similar to the Abrams, are vulnerable to drone strikes and precision-guided missiles. Analysts like Lu De-yun, a former defense ministry official, have pointed out that tanks and armored vehicles have lost some of their strategic value due to the rise of cheap and effective suicide drones. 

Given these realities, some experts believe that Taiwan may need to rethink its heavy reliance on battle tanks and instead invest more heavily in asymmetric strategies. This would include weapons like the American-made Javelin or TOW-2B anti-tank missiles, which have proven effective against modern armor and are easier to deploy in Taiwan’s rugged terrain.

U.S. Military Aid: A Broader Strategy

The delivery of Abrams tanks to Taiwan comes as part of a larger U.S. strategy to bolster Taiwan’s defenses against potential PLA aggression. Alongside the tank shipment, Washington has also announced its largest military aid package for Taiwan to date, amounting to $567 million under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). This package will include a range of defense articles, including stockpiles of anti-armor weapons, air defense systems, and multi-domain awareness tools such as drones.

The focus on drones underscores the growing emphasis on asymmetric warfare in Taiwan’s defense strategy. These unmanned aerial systems (UAS) play a critical role in detecting, tracking, and potentially neutralizing PLA forces before they even reach Taiwan’s shores. In many ways, drones could be more valuable in Taiwan’s defense than traditional armored units.

While the arrival of the M1A2T Abrams tanks will undoubtedly boost Taiwan’s military capabilities, their effectiveness in a potential conflict with the PLA remains uncertain. The tanks are formidable machines, but the dynamics of modern warfare, combined with Taiwan’s challenging geography, raise questions about how useful they would be in an actual invasion scenario.

As tensions across the Taiwan Strait continue to rise, Taiwan’s defense strategy will need to remain flexible, incorporating both conventional and asymmetric capabilities. The Abrams tanks are just one part of a broader, multi-layered defense plan. However, as the nature of warfare evolves, Taiwan may need to increasingly rely on technologies like drones and advanced missile systems to stay ahead of potential PLA incursions.