India on Track to Become Largest Rafale Operator by 2040 with Potential Fleet of 145 Jets, Predicts Dassault

India could soon become the world’s largest operator of Rafale fighter jets, potentially surpassing even France, according to forecasts by Dassault Aviation. By 2040, India may operate over 200 Rafale jets, as both the Indian Air Force (IAF) and Indian Navy continue to expand their fleets. This projection is rooted in India's current defense plans, which include acquiring additional jets under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) competition, along with naval variants for the country's growing maritime needs.

At present, the Indian Air Force operates 36 Rafale jets, a deal that was finalized in 2016 as part of India’s effort to modernize its aging fleet. These twin-engine, multi-role fighters have significantly enhanced India's combat capabilities, especially in terms of air superiority and long-range strike potential. The Rafale can carry a wide range of advanced weapons, including the Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles, SCALP long-range standoff missiles, and Exocet anti-ship missiles, making it a formidable asset for both air and naval operations.

Dassault, the French aerospace company behind the Rafale, has also offered to manufacture the jet in India as part of the Make in India initiative. This offer is part of a broader bid for the MRFA competition, in which the IAF is looking to acquire 114 new fighter jets to strengthen its fleet. If Rafale is chosen, it would bring the total number of Rafales in India to 150 or more, surpassing even France's current fleet of 185 jets.

In addition to the IAF’s plans, the Indian Navy is eyeing the Rafale M (Marine) variant to enhance its aircraft carrier capabilities. Having already secured a deal for 26 naval Rafales, Dassault predicts that India may seek an additional 31 Rafale Ms in the future. These jets would operate from India's aircraft carriers, including the INS Vikrant, enabling the Navy to project power across the Indian Ocean region. With this, India's Rafale fleet could swell to 200 jets, dwarfing the French Navy's current count of 46 Rafale M jets.

The increasing Indian interest in Rafale jets reflects the country’s strategic push to maintain air superiority in a region marked by growing military competition. India's neighbors, particularly China and Pakistan, have been upgrading their own air forces with advanced fighter jets, and India needs a cutting-edge platform to maintain the balance of power. The Rafale, with its sophisticated radar systems, advanced weaponry, and combat agility, has proven its mettle as a versatile, high-performance jet capable of meeting these demands.

However, the Rafale's high price tag has sparked criticism in the past. Despite its cost, Indian military officials argue that the jet’s advanced capabilities more than justify the investment. The addition of long-range Meteor missiles, which far outclass Pakistan's AMRAAMs, gives India a distinct advantage in aerial combat. Moreover, the SCALP missile provides India with a critical long-range strike capability, capable of hitting high-value targets deep inside enemy territory, including hardened infrastructure.

The Rafale's operational range and payload capacity also make it ideal for India’s diverse military needs. Whether flying sorties over the Himalayas or patrolling the vast Indian Ocean, the jet’s performance in varying conditions adds to its appeal. Furthermore, with local manufacturing and technology transfer on the table, the Rafale deal aligns with India’s long-term vision of becoming self-reliant in defense production.

Dassault’s proposal to manufacture Rafale jets in India also presents significant opportunities for the country’s aerospace sector. This move could create jobs, bolster technological capabilities, and bring substantial investment into India. By producing the Rafale domestically, India would not only enhance its defense industry but also reduce its reliance on foreign imports, a critical aspect of the Make in India initiative.

In summary, the potential expansion of India's Rafale fleet signals a clear shift in the country's defense posture. With the possibility of operating over 200 jets by 2040, India is positioning itself as a major military power, not only in South Asia but on the global stage. As Dassault continues to work closely with Indian defense authorities, the Rafale program could play a pivotal role in shaping the future of India's defense capabilities and its aerospace industry.